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The Associated Press

Americans believe the economy is in a recession. But is it true?

Featured Topic | Posted 4 days 20 hours ago

Is economic gloom and doom overblown?

Just how bad is the U.S. economy? Who's asking? More important, who's answering? A new poll shows that more Americans than ever before think the economy is in a recession. A national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Tuesday found that 79% of respondents -- nearly 4 out of 5 -- believe the economy is now in a recession. That is up from 74% of Americans in March, 66% in February and 46% six months ago.

But most economists say different. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession on its Web site as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Economic growth has been sluggish, but it hasn't dipped into negative territory. And, if this is a recession, it seems to be milder than the recession of 2001. So is the talk of economic disaster exaggerated? Has the media oversold the recession? Or is the worst yet to come?

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Ben likes: No recession

Brian Wesbury/First Trust Advisors

The conventional wisdom is not always wrong. But because it depends so much on emotion, it can often mislead. As a result, it is in times like these that economic fundamentals become so important. Rather than dwelling on the bad news coming from the financial and housing sectors, we believe it is important to look at the underlying drivers of the economy. And those look very solid.

Back in 2002-03, the household measure of civilian employment was much stronger than the payroll survey, signaling economic recovery.  However, at the time, many prominent economists, including Alan Greenspan, (wrongly) argued that the payroll survey was right about the economy, not the household survey.

Then, in late 2007, the household survey was weaker than payroll growth, signaling slower growth and gaining some adherents now that it was showing weakness. But in the past few months, the household survey -- which we have followed closely all along -- has turned up strongly. In the first four months of 2008, when the payrolls survey shows a loss of 65,000 jobs per month, the household survey shows a gain of 179,000 per month.

Look for more positive economic data in the months ahead, as the most predicted recession in U.S. history never comes to pass.    

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Joel likes: How Wall Street gravely damaged the economy

Kevin Phillips/The American Prospect

As of spring 2008, we're probably just a third of the way through the unfolding debacle in the housing, credit, and financial markets. In political and regulatory terms, the ultimate problems and remedies have only begun to define themselves.

We're not just looking at an ordinary recession. Since the 1970s, the United States has redefined itself from a manufacturing nation to a financial economy built on debt, leverage, and a considerable ratio of speculation. Both political parties have been complicit in this, and the downturn now beginning will be unusual and potentially tragic.

The lesson of history is that previous leading world economic powers, from Rome and Imperial Spain to the Netherlands (back when New York was New Amsterdam) and early 20th-century Britain, have been unable to reform themselves in time to avoid decline. Politics has failed in the face of entrenched interests. In the process, excessive debt and dependence on finance rather than production has been front and center. New nations move to the head of the line -- and these days we can see Asia smiling.

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