Hillary Clinton and Rep. Baron Hill
The Associated Press

Hillary Clinton is closing the popular vote and delegate gaps with Barack Obama. But also she needs superdelegates, such as Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., if she hopes to win the nomination.

Featured Topic | Posted 23 weeks 1 day ago

Superdelegate stalemate: Can the Democrats settle on a candidate and avert a schism?

The Democratic nomination contest could go all the way to June, and perhaps even to the Democratic National Convention in August. The Pennsylvania primary was supposed to help clarify the picture for the 795 Democratic superdelegates, but Senator Hillary Clinton’s strong victory there on Tuesday has in many ways complicated matters for them, furthering a stalemate that has deeply divided the party even as top Democrats called this week for them to make up their minds by June.

The latest New York Times survey of superdelegates -- the party leaders and elected officials who essentially have the power to determine the nominee -- finds that Clinton holds a 16-person edge that slices into Barack Obama’s overall lead in delegates. And those 478 superdelegates who have declared their allegiances show no signs of switching sides as the primary calendar proceeds toward its June 3 ending.

Yet there was a clear sentiment that the rest of the Democratic campaign and the way it is resolved would be crucial. “The way the loser loses,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who is close to both candidates but has made no endorsement, “will determine whether the winner wins in November.”

Should the popular vote winner in the primaries be the Democratic nominee for president? Or should the delegates decide who is most "electable"?

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Ben likes: 'Popular' is Hillary's middle name

Michael Barone/National Review Online

One thing many people haven’t noticed about Hillary Clinton’s 55 percent to 45 percent victory over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary is that it put her ahead of Obama in the popular vote. Her 214,000-vote margin in the Keystone State means that she has won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama.

If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes.

Moreover, she may be able to maintain that lead, despite an expected Obama victory in North Carolina on May 6, by rolling up big popular vote margins in West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1. So it’s likely that Clinton will be able to argue that undecided super-delegates should heed the will of the people.

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Joel likes: Heading toward the danger zone

Bob Herbert/New York Times

Hillary Clinton may be behind, and she may lose. But she is now widely seen as the tougher of the two candidates, the one who is more resolute, who will fight harder and longer (and, yes, more unscrupulously) to achieve her desired ends. An edge in toughness is hardly a good quality to cede to your opponent.

Some Democratic officials who were worried about having Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket in November are now expressing concern about Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton’s bar-brawl tactics have raised her negatives sharply, but they’ve also raised doubts about Mr. Obama. Is he a fighter? Is he tough enough to take on the G.O.P.?

One of Senator Obama’s favorite phrases is “the fierce urgency of now.” There is nothing more fiercely urgent for him right now than to reassure voters and superdelegates that an Obama candidacy will not lead to a Democratic debacle in November.

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