The Associated Press

Sure, people are working, but is growth halting?

Featured Topic | Posted 37 weeks 6 days ago

Are Americans better off now than they were four years ago? How about 30?

If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable. Or is it? Trouble is, history is often not the most reliable of guides. At least, not lately.

Yet the dismal jobs report released last week showed overall employment to be lower than it was three months ago. Every time such a slump has occurred since the early 1970s, a recession has followed -- or already been under way.

So, the question is, is the U.S. economy tanking? Has it been tanking all along? Have the economic successes of previous years been illusory? Are Americans really better off than they were four years ago? Or is the economic picture worse than we think?

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Ben likes: The inequality myth

Brad Schiller/Wall Street Journal

That broad swath of economic advancement shows up in personal consumption. According to the Labor Department, personal consumption spending has risen by $2.5 trillion since 2000. More Americans own homes and new cars today than ever before, despite slowdowns in both industries. Laptop computers, iPhones and flat-panel TVs are fast becoming necessities rather than luxury items.

The average American household is doing pretty well. The evident gap between income realities and political rhetoric may help explain why the "two Americas" theme, first asserted by John Edwards and since echoed by Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, may ultimately fail to resonate with voters. On Election Day, voters may well turn to the candidate with the greater focus on a strong economy that increases everyone's income.

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Joel likes: Our three-decade recession

Robert Costanza/Los Angeles Times

The news media and the government are fixated on the fact that the U.S. economy may be headed into a recession -- defined as two or more successive quarters of declining gross domestic product. The situation is actually much worse. By some measures of economic performance, the United States has been in a recession since 1975 -- a recession in quality of life, or well-being.

Once Americans' well-being becomes the basis for measuring our success, other reforms should follow. We should tax bads (carbon emissions, depletion of natural resources) rather than goods (labor, savings, investment). We should recognize the negative effects of growing income disparities and take steps to address them.

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