Why are fewer people having children?

The Associated Press

We're seeing fewer of these scenes.

Featured Topic | Posted 38 weeks 14 hours ago

Why are fewer people having children?

The "demographic winter" is coming. So warns a new documentary of the same name. What is the demographic winter? The phrase, according to the film's promotional materials, "denotes the worldwide decline in birthrates, also referred to as the 'birth dearth,' and what that portends." The first half of Demographic Winter was previewed at the conservative Heritage Foundation a couple of weeks ago.

According the film, the demographic winter suggests little good, e.g., economic collapse and social deterioration. If current trends continue world population should begin a steep decline sometime around the middle of the 21st century.

Why? And is it true? Are overpopulation worries overblown?

Ben likes: Creepy, short-sighted, (and ultimately juvenile) libertarianism

Joseph Knippenberg/No Left Turns

One of the things that makes us human is feeling and living up to responsibilities for others, which is manifest much more powerfully in child-rearing than even in marriage (especially if you’re talking about two "autonomous adults," each of whom is earning an income sufficient to support himself or herself). Ronald Bailey, the author of the Reason magazine article, seems to run away from adulthood because it isn’t much fun. The libertarians I respect are grown-ups who aren’t afraid of grown-up responsibilities.

Joel likes: Missing: The 'right' babies

Katherine Joyce/The Nation

The nativist motivations for such campaigns move beyond the subliminal at times. Elizabeth Krause, an anthropologist and author of "A Crisis of Births: Population Politics and Family-Making in Italy," tracked that country's population efforts over the past decade and found politicians demanding more babies "to keep away the armadas of immigrants from the southern shores of the Mediterranean" and priests calling for a "Christian dike against the Muslim invasion of Italy." The racial preferences behind Berlusconi's "baby bonus" came into embarrassing relief when immigrant parents were accidentally sent checks for their offspring and then asked to return the money: the Italian government hadn't meant to promote those births.

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Well that's quite a simple

Submitted on July 14th, 2008 by Anonymous

Well that's quite a simple question. First of all financial problems, we all have them and we'll always have them. Then, social problems. The world is quite a cruel place to have a child, there are very few quiet places and they are very expensive. Massmedia always show different stories regarding crimes of theft wich can influence the child's thinking and slightly reeducate him. There are several arguments regarding this sad but true fact.
Mediterranean Cruises

#6

Submitted on May 27th, 2008 by Anonymous

#6 Because people are preoccupied with work, travel, and socializing, and enjoy the freedom of a child-free home.
#7 They have pets.
#8 They waited too long and have a harder time getting pregnant.
#9 They don't like children.
#10 They are still holding on to their own youth.

Re: Demographic winter

Submitted on March 2nd, 2008 by Joel

I'm reading through the NYT this morning when I happen upon an essay that crystallizes for me why I'm not worried about "demographic winter:"

I WAS raised a Protestant in a Rockwellian New Hampshire village that was the proud home to stout, wood-frame churches and Saturday night ham-and-bean suppers.

There were four of us kids, and these days my sister and my middle brother are born-again Christians, and my youngest brother is a Catholic. Me? I’m the Jew.

The essay relates back to the fluidity of religious identity, which we had as a topic and a poll here on the site earlier this week. One-quarter of Americans have left the religion of their childhood. It's a fascinating fact, cause for some hand-wringing among segments of our population.

But it's precisely the reason I'm not worried about demographic winter. Proponents of the theory would never be so crass as to say something like "we need more white babies," because some of them wouldn't see things in those terms, and others are just smarter salesmen than that. So the fears aroused by the concept are framed in religious-cultural terms -- secular Europe is about to lose its identity to baby-making Muslims, etc.

This might be of concern, I suppose, if religion and culture were inherent, unalterable traits. But of course, they're not. We choose them. Are they influential? Yes, of course, I'm not naive. But the fears of demographic winter rest on an idea that "others" can't be changed, and thus we will lose based on their implacability and fecundity. And the truth is much more complex than that.

Once you recognize that religion and culture can be engaged and argued with (yes it's easier in some cases than other) instead of, you know, something to conquer or be conquered by, the whole equation changes. The worries of demographic winter, then, become centered around race.

And if that's the case: Who cares?

You wanna talk decline

Submitted on March 1st, 2008 by Cycle_Geezer

"If current trends continue world population should begin a steep decline sometime around the middle of the 21st century."

It's a lead pipe cinch (hows that for an ancient cliche) that I will personally suffer a steep, precipitous even, decline at the same time or even before. Given humanity's hunger for natural resources, a little time out is probably a good thing.

Maybe....

Submitted on March 1st, 2008 by Joel

I can see having a spirited discussion about 1,3,4 and 5. I might even agree, to some extent, with 1, 3 and 4.

But No. 2 makes no sense to me.

It's not that I don't think we can't have a spirited discussion about No. 2 in its own context, Rick. But as a reason for not having kids ... I doubt it.

Is anybody out there thinking, "Gosh, I'd have a kid ... but I might get divorced someday, and courts are tough on fathers in custody cases..."? Nah. If you're thinking ahead to divorce already, you're probably not thinking about having a kid.

That said, I can't get too worked up about "demographic winter." But since your post isn't about that, I won't lay out my thoughts on that in this post.