Don't mess with it.
Barack Obama has picked up a few primary victories in states where Democrats often have a difficult time: Kansas, South Carolina, Virginia. Now some Democrats are wondering if that primary success can translate to November victories.
Can Obama win red states?
The biggest problem Obama will have will be the purple states -- states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and others that barely went red or blue in 2000 and 2004. If McCain makes the case that Obama is too much a lockstep liberal and big-spending statist, the battleground states will make all the difference -- and McCain's maverick track record gives him the inside track for the center.
Republicans made up 6% of voters in Missouri's Democratic primary, 7% in Virginia's and 9% in Wisconsin's. (Most states make it harder to vote in the other party's contest.) The overwhelming majority cast their ballots for Sen. Obama, according to exit polls.
"Very rarely do you hear me talking about my opponents without giving them some credit for having good intentions and being decent people," Obama recently told U.S. News & World Report. "There's nothing uniquely Democratic about a respect for civil liberties. There's nothing uniquely Democratic about believing in a foreign policy of restraint. . . . A lot of the virtues I talk about are virtues that are deeply embedded in the Republican Party."
Thoughts
Purple Power
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by MathManThe election will be decided by the purple voters in the purple states. Obama does not need to carry any red states and McCain does not need to carry any blue states. Will purple voters choose Obama’s magnetism and change message over his liberalism, or will they choose McCain the maverick, even though he supports and expensive and unnecessary war and is tied to current economic policies?
However, Obama’s ability to bring out some red and purple voters make have an effect on congressional races in purple House districts. The presidential race seems to have little effect on Senate contests.
Really?
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by JoelWhich blue states do you think he wouldn't carry? I somehow doubt that, say, Massachusetts will suddenly end up in the red column...
??? the bigger question ???
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by AnonymousHe has won in some red states but he hasn't carried many of the big blue states. Can he carry big blue states and can he carry those red states again?
I'm not so sure he can.
Coattail evidence
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by Cycle_GeezerHere's an article about those missing coattails. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/020...
Don't count on no coattails
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by JoelChuck, at the caucus I went to, there were 200 Independents and Republicans who came out and reregistered as Dems on the spot to caucus for Obama.
It's a small sample, but if you get a number of people like that headed to the polls ready to vote Dem at the top of the ticket ... well, let's just say Congressional Democrats are going to feel a lot more comfortable.
Don't count on coattails...
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by Chuck_JohnsonThere's no reason to think Obama -- or any of the other candidates -- have coattails. Obama's campaign has always been about him. I don't think he's going to be willing to go and help fellow Democrats that he doesn't know. And if he does, the GOP could say, "hey what happened to unity?"
You could argue that some people will just vote a straight Democrat ticket. But more and more states allow split tickets.
I don't see Obama winning a single state that Bush won in 2004. And if that doesn't happen, he just won't win.
Hmmm
Submitted on February 27th, 2008 by JoelI dunno if Obama can win red states, but I think he can make them competitive. I heard a political science professor last night talking about how Obama is just 6-8 points back of McCain in Kansas, which hasn't gone Dem since LBJ. Clearly, 6-8 points back is STILL losing the state, but it's a much closer margin than you would typically expect around here.
And for what it's worth, the poli-sci prof said Hillary Clinton is down by 20 to McCain in Kansas.
Where this makes a real difference might not be at the Electoral College, but in Congress. If Obama can poll that close to McCain, then Dems in swing districts are going to have a much better chance of riding coattails into office. Clinton doesn't really have those coattails, and it's well-known that some of those swing-district Dems would MUCH rather see him than her at the top of the ticket.