Barack Obama speaks to a crowd.
The Associated Press

Is he poised to go all the way?

Featured Topic | Posted 40 weeks 3 days ago

Potomac Primary: Obama sweeps, but does he have momentum?

Barack Obama soundly rival Hillary Clinton in the Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. in the primaries on Tuesday night. Look at the percentages. In Maryland, Obama was winning 60 percent to 37 percent; in Virginia, it was Obama 64 percent, Clinton 35 percent; and in the District of Columbia, it was Obama 76 percent, Clinton 24 percent.

When it comes to delegates, the race is still very close. But is the race breaking Obama's way? Is he gathering momentum? Or is Hillary Clinton still a candidate not to be trifled with?

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Ben likes: Delegate math for Dems

David Freddoso/National Review Online

Even after Obama gains ground in today’s contests in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., he will have only a slight lead in delegates. After that, what do Democrats have to hope for?

The salvation of the Democratic system has previously been the propensity for voters to unite around a winner early. John Kerry’s total victory was all but guaranteed after he won the
New Hampshire primary in 2004.

This time, the Democratic race has come down to just two candidates, either of whom could win. It is going into the late states, no matter what. It is an undemocratic game in which the voters are mathematically incapable of picking the winner without the help of unelected party elders.

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Joel likes: Clinton's February slide

John Nichols/The Nation

If the pattern holds, Obama's February record will be 23 or 24 wins (depending on New Mexico) to 8 or 9 wins for Clinton.
Obama's post-Super Tuesday stats could well be 10-0. And his claim of national support is now epic in scope.

"(The) cynics can no longer say our hope is false," Obama said in Madison on Tuesday night. "We have won east and west, north and south, and across the great heartland of this country we love."

Clinton still holds out hope for a turnaround on March 4 in Ohio and Texas. But her campaign is going to have a tougher time convincing donors to cough up the money to compete in those multi-media market states with the win-loss ratio she is toting up in the longest month of what has turned out to be a hard, hard winter for the former front-runner.

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Re: Does Obama have momentum

Submitted on February 13th, 2008 by Jim Lakely

This truly is the most remarkably exciting presidential primary of our lifetimes. I agree with Fredosso's analysis. And as the invaluable Michael Barone has been saying for a while, this could all come down to how Puerto Rico (of all places) votes. (Hillary will no doubt bring up her husband's gift to the FALN at crunch time, and it will probably prove decisive.)

What will be interesting will be the dynamic of Hillary Clinton -- long a critic of the unfairness of the Electoral College -- arguing that she deserves to be the Democratic nominee if she wins in delegates, but loses the popular vote to Obama.

Regardless, the Democrats will have a level of factional strife -- at just the moment when they need unity -- that will make the long-forgotten Republican griping about McCain seem tame. That dynamic could, beyond all reason, mean that the Republicans' chances of keeping the White House are actually at least even -- if not better.

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