Looking to Super-duper Tuesday: Are brokered conventions possible?

The Associated Press

The party conventions could be livelier than usual this year.

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Looking to Super-duper Tuesday: Are brokered conventions possible?

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a drawn-out war of attrition for the Democratic presidential nomination, sure to be fighting for delegates beyond next Tuesday no matter who comes out ahead on the primary season's biggest day. A similar scenario may be developing on the Republican side, with none of the candidates emerging with the necessary 1,200 delegates to lock up the nomination.

Even with also-ran candidates dropping left and right, the contests remain close. Could there be brokered conventions in both parties' futures? Would a return of the "smoke-filled back room" bolster or undermine confidence in the candidates? Or can the parties unite behind a single standard bearer?

Ben likes: Death by brokered convention

Daniel Larison/Eunomia

A brokered convention would draw a lot of media attention, and it would give endless material for political reporters and pundits to talk about. But while there would be a lot of media exposure it’s not clear to me that this works to the benefit of the eventual nominee and the party. In some respects, a hard-fought nomination contest improves all of the candidates running and prepares them for the general election, but as with any long, drawn-out internal contest the winner at the end comes away muddied and bloodied and vulnerable.

Joel likes: The convention delegate process explained

Sam Boyd/The American Prospect

Brokered conventions (where no candidate arrives with a majority of the delegates) are predicted every four years, and every four years they don't actually happen. However, it does seem likely this year that we'll, at the very least, see a closer result than any since 1980 or even 1968. We might not even know who will win until the convention gets underway. Edwards could act as a kingmaker by throwing his delegates to Clinton or Obama and putting him or her over the top (his delegates would not be required to follow his instructions, but they will likely be personally loyal to him). Or, unelected superdelegates could throw the nomination to a candidate who comes in second in pledged delegates. Even if the result is known at the start of the convention, it might not be determined until June or July.