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Hillary Clinton and Rep. Baron Hill
The Associated Press

Hillary Clinton is closing the popular vote and delegate gaps with Barack Obama. But also she needs superdelegates, such as Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., if she hopes to win the nomination.

Featured Topic | Posted 29 weeks 5 days ago

Superdelegate stalemate: Can the Democrats settle on a candidate and avert a schism?

The Democratic nomination contest could go all the way to June, and perhaps even to the Democratic National Convention in August.

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Ben likes: 'Popular' is Hillary's middle name

Michael Barone/National Review Online

One thing many people haven’t noticed about Hillary Clinton’s 55 percent to 45 percent victory over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary is that it put her ahead of Obama in the popular vote. Her 214,000-vote margin in the Keystone State means that she has won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama.

If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes.

Moreover, she may be able to maintain that lead, despite an expected Obama victory in North Carolina on May 6, by rolling up big popular vote margins in West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1. So it’s likely that Clinton will be able to argue that undecided super-delegates should heed the will of the people.

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Joel likes: Heading toward the danger zone

Bob Herbert/New York Times

Hillary Clinton may be behind, and she may lose. But she is now widely seen as the tougher of the two candidates, the one who is more resolute, who will fight harder and longer (and, yes, more unscrupulously) to achieve her desired ends. An edge in toughness is hardly a good quality to cede to your opponent.

Some Democratic officials who were worried about having Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket in November are now expressing concern about Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton’s bar-brawl tactics have raised her negatives sharply, but they’ve also raised doubts about Mr. Obama. Is he a fighter? Is he tough enough to take on the G.O.P.?

One of Senator Obama’s favorite phrases is “the fierce urgency of now.” There is nothing more fiercely urgent for him right now than to reassure voters and superdelegates that an Obama candidacy will not lead to a Democratic debacle in November.

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Hillary wins Pennsylvania
The Associated Press

Hillary Clinton celebrates her victory in the Keystone state with Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell.

Featured Topic | Posted 30 weeks 2 days ago

Pennsylvania payoff: Hillary Clinton wins... now what?

Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in Pennsylvania on Tuesday by enough of a margin to continue a battle that Democrats increasingly believe is undermining their effort to unify the party and prepare for the general election against

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Ben likes: The second comeback of Hillary Clinton

Hugh Hewitt/Townhall.com

Democratic superdelegates will have to think about the long months of summer ahead.  The truth is that Senator Obama would be the most left-wing main party presidential nominee in history.  He is far outside the mainstream, and large crowds in stadiums don't translate into huge vote margins in general elections.  The young love him, yes, but the old are really going to trust John McCain to protect them.  The superdelegates are going to be upset that Operation Chaos revived Hillary, and if she comebacks, she'll always be Rush's nominee, but he just played the role of Burgess Meredith/Mickey Goldmill in Rocky.  (Bill will be Paulie -- a fine analogy.)  Hillary will have shown the toughness to do what it took to win.

(Moderator's note: Hewitt called it early in the day Tuesday.)Joel likes: The Democratic race will continue 

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Joel likes: The Democratic race will continue

John Nichols/The Nation

Hillary Clinton has won the Pennsylvania primary, and something akin to formal permission to continue campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination.

With most of the Pennsylvania vote counted, she's ahead 55-45.

That's a credible victory, if not perhaps so dramatic a finish as would have been needed to fundamentally change the reality that the senator from New York is unlikely to win the Democratic nod.

Clinton will keep campaigning. This race will continue for at least two more weeks, and probably longer. That will excite Clinton backers, just as it will disappoint Obama backers.

It's messy. It's frustrating. But this is what democracy looks like. And it will keep looking this way until Obama beats Clinton in a state she's supposed to win -- or until Obama finally wins not just a plurality but a majority of delegates. 

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The Associated Press

Hillary Clinton greets supporters at the AFL-CIO in Philadelphia.

Featured Topic | Posted 33 weeks 1 day ago

Is Big Labor's power waning in U.S. politics?

The Pennsylvania primary is more than a contest between Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. It's a showdown between two rival labor union factions and whether they can deliver for their presidential candidate.

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Ben likes: The changing union label

Bryan O’Keefe/The American

It seems clear that this year’s establishment candidate, Hilary Clinton, will not have organized labor rush to her rescue. Part of this may be political payback for her husband’s presidency. After aggressively supporting Bill Clinton twice, many labor unions felt that his administration either ignored them or endorsed legislation (such as NAFTA) that was inimical to union interests.

But there are more fundamental issues that explain labor’s shift. For starters, the leaders of today’s unions are different from those of yesteryear in personality and ideology. Consider Andy Stern, the charismatic president of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and arguably the most important labor leader in America. Stern didn’t get his start in the union movement working at a steel mill; instead, he attended the University of Pennsylvania in the late 1960s and first joined the SEIU as a social worker. Unlike Meany or Kirkland, Stern is unabashedly liberal on nearly every policy issue. And when Stern was unhappy with the leadership of the AFL-CIO, he spurned the old labor line about “solidarity,” withdrew the SEIU from the AFL-CIO, recruited like-minded unions to do the same, and formed an entirely new labor federation, dubbed Change to Win.

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Joel likes: Unions command renewed power in race

Pittsburgh Business Times

If the national news media had been right, the culinary workers' union would have swept Sen. Barack Obama to victory in Nevada's Democratic presidential primary.

That, of course, is not what happened; Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote -- though not the most delegates to the party's national convention -- in the Silver State. But the attention paid to the culinary workers' endorsement of Obama suggests labor unions will play a more prominent role in this year's presidential election.

Nearly 14 percent of Pennsylvania workers -- 745,000 people -- are union members, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Union members don't vote in lock step, said Jack Shea, president of the Allegheny County Labor Council, but the figures are pretty high. About 70 percent of union workers vote how their union advises them, Shea said.

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Al Gore at An Inconvenient Truth premiere
The Associated Press

Is Al Gore ready for his second act? Is America?

Featured Topic | Posted 34 weeks 2 days ago

Is a Gore-led ticket still possible?

Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats' nominee to face Republican John McCain in the November presidential election, right? Right?

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Ben likes: Al Gore is inevitable

John Derbyshire/National Review Online

What to do? What to do? The party bosses are slumped in their seats, staring blankly into space, or doing job searches on their Blackberries. All is gloom and despondency.

Then … A fanfare of trumpets! A shaft of light! Into the hall rides a man on a white stallion! Stirred from their lethargy, the delegates begin rising from their seats. They start cheering and applauding. The rider reaches the podium, dismounts, and strides to the dais. The applause is deafening now. Cheers ring round the hall! Women are weeping; men are hugging each other.

Broad-shouldered and confident, his sternocleidomastoid muscle flexing and rippling, the Rescuer sweeps his powerful gaze around the hall. A hush falls. He begins to speak. As he speaks, the same though settles on every listener simultaneously: This is the one. He has always been the one. What fools we have been!

Don’t think it couldn’t happen. Don’t, in fact, think it isn’t going to happen. The Democratic party has two lame candidates, without a dime’s worth of executive experience between them.

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Joel likes: Gore, more than before

Larry Abrams/Huffington Post

Al Gore has many things to recommend him. As opposed to Hillary, he actually is quite experienced. Hillary's supposed 35 years of experience consists of exactly seven years of elective office.

As opposed to Obama, Gore really is a candidate of systemic change, and he's got the Nobel Prize to prove it.

Gore is not only the best Democratic candidate who could be put up at this point, he might end up being the only alternative at a deadlocked convention.

A Gore-Obama ticket would be a winning Democratic combination -- for a change -- in November. 

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Hillary Clinton
The Associated Press

Math isn't on her side.

Featured Topic | Posted 34 weeks 5 days ago

Why is Hillary Clinton still running for president?

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning. Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead of Barack Obama in pledged delegates.

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Ben likes: Once again, the media declare the Democratic race over

John Podhoretz/Commentary's Contentions

Surely, if she wins every state until the end of the primaries, that will suggest Obama has weakened wildly and will change the dynamic of the discussion in Democratic circles going into the summer. It’s a tall order, very tall, to be sure. But one thing is certain: Her path to the nomination actually looks better this week than it did last week, owing to Obama’s troubles. And yet the pieces all appear at once to say she’s through. Why try to puncture a hole in Hillary’s balloon now? It is very nearly impossible not to think that, at least unconsciously, the pieces are an effort to limit the damage to Barack Obama among the undecided superdelegates and the like by reminding them of the trouble Hillary is in.

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Joel likes: The Republican resurrection

Frank Rich/New York Times

It’s too late now, and so the Democratic stars are rapidly aligning for disaster. Mrs. Clinton is no longer trying to overcome Mr. Obama’s lead in the popular vote and among pledged delegates by making bold statements about Iraq or any other issue. Instead of enhancing her own case for the presidency, she’s going to tear him down. As Adam Nagourney of The New York Times delicately put it last week, she is “looking for some development to shake confidence in Mr. Obama” so that she can win over superdelegates in covert 3 a.m. phone calls. If Mr. Wright doesn’t do it, she’ll seek another weapon. Mr. Obama, who is, after all, a politician and not a deity, could well respond in kind.

For Republicans, the prospect of marathon Democratic trench warfare is an Easter miracle. Unless Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton find a way to come together for the good of their country as well as their party, no speech by either of them may prevent Mr. McCain from making his second unlikely resurrection in a single political year.

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