Schwarzenegger and McCain, political twins.
John McCain has the Terminator in his corner. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain for president this week, saying the Arizona senator "has shown over and over again he is reaching across the aisle to get things done."
Interestingly, the Governor’s endorsement could have greater influence with voters outside of California whose opinions are unsullied by news coverage of his problems with other Republicans back home.
Yet the greatest value may have nothing to do with voters casting their ballot based on Governor Schwarzenegger’s recommendation. Instead it may stem from the Oscar-worthy coverage the endorsement has generated. And when you’re running against a well funded opponent like former Governor Mitt Romney, that of kind nationwide free publicity is worth millions.
Studies have tried to debunk the value of celebrity endorsements, as if a nation deliriously hooked on entertainment could never be duped by Hollywood. But seeing as we've now elevated our presidential hopefuls to celebrity status -- people turn out for an Obama rally like Jersey girls to a Bruce Springsteen concert -- it seems only fair to weigh their chances based in part on the company they keep.
The party conventions could be livelier than usual this year.
Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a drawn-out war of attrition for the Democratic presidential nomination, sure to be fighting for delegates beyond next Tuesday no matter who comes out ahead on the primary season's biggest day. A similar scenario may be developing on the Republican side, with none of the candidates emerging with the necessary 1,200 delegates to lock up the nomination.
A brokered convention would draw a lot of media attention, and it would give endless material for political reporters and pundits to talk about. But while there would be a lot of media exposure it’s not clear to me that this works to the benefit of the eventual nominee and the party. In some respects, a hard-fought nomination contest improves all of the candidates running and prepares them for the general election, but as with any long, drawn-out internal contest the winner at the end comes away muddied and bloodied and vulnerable.
Brokered conventions (where no candidate arrives with a majority of the delegates) are predicted every four years, and every four years they don't actually happen. However, it does seem likely this year that we'll, at the very least, see a closer result than any since 1980 or even 1968. We might not even know who will win until the convention gets underway. Edwards could act as a kingmaker by throwing his delegates to Clinton or Obama and putting him or her over the top (his delegates would not be required to follow his instructions, but they will likely be personally loyal to him). Or, unelected superdelegates could throw the nomination to a candidate who comes in second in pledged delegates. Even if the result is known at the start of the convention, it might not be determined until June or July.
