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U.S. satellite images of an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor site
The Associated Press

The U.S. government on Thursday released images of a site in Syria believed to be a nuclear reactor built with North Korean know-how. The image on the left shows the results of an Israeli airstrike.

Featured Topic | Posted 36 weeks 6 days ago

Should the U.S. strike rogue nuclear sites?

The United States has a message for would-be nuclear proliferators: We're watching you, and we see more than you think. That's the conclusion some experts draw from the U.S. government's unusual April 24 release of evidence that Syria may have been building a nuclear reactor with North Korea's assistance.

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Ben likes: North Korea, Syria, and Iran

Gordon G. Chang/Commentary's Contentions

Today, U.S. intelligence officials will give closed-door briefings to members of Congress about North Korea’s role in building a reactor in Syria. (Israel, it’s been confirmed, destroyed that nuclear facility with their air-strikes last September.)

Why are the briefings taking place now? This morning the New York Times’s David Sanger speculated that Vice President Cheney is trying to scuttle the six-party disarmament talks by highlighting Pyongyang’s proliferant behavior. Others have floated more intriguing theories. For example, Jon Wolfsthal, an analyst from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, thinks the Bush administration is releasing the information at this time to rescue its tentative deal with the North Koreans by letting them off the hook. “If it turns out we have them dead to rights -- that we have enough information on our own -- then we can eliminate this as a point of contention,” he says. “Maybe we don’t need to negotiate transparency with North Korea because we already know enough.” 

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Joel likes: Links to reactor?

New York Times

Until now, the administration has refused to discuss the video or the attack, other than in a highly classified briefing for a few allies and crucial members of Congress.

The timing of the administration’s decision to declassify information about the Syrian project has raised widespread suspicions, especially in the State Department, that Vice President Dick Cheney and other administration hawks were hoping that releasing the information might undermine a potential deal with North Korea that would take it off an American list of state sponsors of terrorism.

“Making public the pictures is likely to inflame the North Koreans,” said one senior administration official who would not speak on the record because the White House and the State Department have declared there would be no public comment until the evidence is released. “And that’s just what opponents of this whole arrangement want, because they think the North Koreans will stalk off.”

Ambassador Christopher Hill has argued in private that the Syrian episode and the uranium enrichment are side shows, and that the critical issue is stopping North Korea from producing more plutonium and giving up what it has. But his State Department colleagues say that he has been told not to defend the deal, or even explain it.

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atomic blast
U.S. Department of Energy

The consequences of a "small" nuclear war would be widespread and long-lasting.

Featured Topic | Posted 39 weeks 22 hours ago

Regional nuclear war would have worldwide fallout

If you think a small-scale nuclear war between, say, India and Pakistan would only devastate part of the Asian subcontinent, think again. A new report suggests that the effects of a regional nuclear exchange would have global environmental impact. What can world leaders do?

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Ben likes: By the shadow of our hand

Wretchard/Belmont Club

The Guardian describes an extraordinary manifesto authored "by five of the west's most senior military officers and strategists..." At first glance, the manifesto appears to mark a return to the policy of deterrence; a rueful admission that nothing but a revival of the balance of terror can now secure the West against forces that its publics are unwilling to mobilize against. That thought will ironically comfort many of those who lived through the long shadow of East versus West. After all, if deterrence kept the West safe against the Soviets for the long duration of the Cold War might not containment and the mutual balance of terror also safeguard it indefinitely against radical Islam?

Deterrence worked because it made peace the only alternative to utter destruction. But it worked against the Soviets because for all their belligerence could always be counted on to choose life. The Commissars may have been stupid but they were not crazy. Can the same assumption be made about Islamic radicals who desire death? From the point of a theocratic zealot the rational choice may be to hasten Armageddon.

On closer inspection the manifesto might not be about deterrence at all. It is about committing to prevent terrorists from acquiring WMDs at all costs. The reason Lord Inge's remark that "to tie our hands on first use or no first use removes a huge plank of deterrence" is so significant is that it brings the trigger point back from second-strike or launch on attack to one in which WMD acquisition itself becomes the casus belli. It is almost a form of pre-deterrence. 

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Joel likes: The greatest ecological threat of all

Tomdispatch interview with Jonathan Schell

You know, when I wrote The Fate of the Earth, back in 1982, I said that, first and foremost, nuclear weapons were an ecological danger. It wasn't that our species could be directly wiped out by nuclear war down to the last person. That would only happen through the destruction of the underpinnings of life, through nuclear winter, radiation, ozone loss. There has been an oddity of timing, because when the nuclear weapon was invented, people didn't even use the word "environment" or "ecosphere." The environmental movement was born later.

So, in a certain sense, the greatest -- or certainly the most urgent -- ecological threat of them all was born before the context in which you could understand it. The present larger ecological crisis is that context. In other words, global warming and nuclear war are two different ways that humanity, having grown powerful through science, through production, through population growth, threatens to undo the natural underpinnings of human, and all other, life. In a certain way, I think we may be in a better position today, because of global warming, to grasp the real import of nuclear danger. 

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The Associated Press

A future commander-in-chief? Or the object of mere speculation?

Featured Topic | Posted 39 weeks 1 day ago

Condoleezza Rice for Vice President?

She was the second African-American secretary of state, but the first black national security advisor. She worked for George W. Bush's father. She was provost at Stanford. She's an accomplished concert pianist. She has an oil tanker named after her. So Condoleeza Rice is certainly prominent enough for political operatives and media mavens to name her as a would-be vice-president. But is that enough?

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Ben likes: A bad choice for veep

Jay Cost/Real Clear Politics

That is how I would characterize the thought of putting Condi Rice on the Republican ticket.I am sympathetic to the idea that McCain needs a veep candidate to satisfy conservatives. I expect most self-identified Republicans will ultimately vote for him in November, but their enthusiasm would be an asset. It would be good if he can firm them up with his veep choice.However, McCain should not nominate anybody with strong attachments to the Bush administration.

George Bush's job approval rating is in the cellar. It has been in the cellar for two years, and there seems to me to be no reason to think that it will be anywhere but the cellar come Election Day. This means that the "median voter" -- the guy or gal right smack dab in the middle of the electorate who will essentially decide the whole thing -- disapproves of George W. Bush. If McCain wants to win this election, this is the person whose vote he must win. And nominating Bush's Secretary of State will hinder, rather than help him. 

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Joel likes: Run, Condi, run!

Eugene Robinson/Washington Post

She wouldn't bring any political base to the ticket, since she doesn't have one. She wouldn't bring any regional advantage, since McCain is almost certain to beat either Democrat in Rice's native state of Alabama, and almost certain to lose to either Democrat in Rice's adopted state of California.

And while McCain has tied his candidacy to the Iraq occupation, he maintains some distance from the Bush administration by charging that until recently the war was woefully mismanaged. Rice, as national security adviser in Bush's first term, was one of the mismanagers.

I can't help but imagine having another controversial, larger-than-life character wade into the fray, one who not only raises McCain's big wager on Iraq but also takes us further into terra incognita on issues of race and gender. Whatever you think of Condoleezza Rice, she's a formidable woman with more qualifications than almost any other vice presidential choice I can think of.

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Ship-based anti-ballistic missile
The Associated Press

Missile away!

Featured Topic | Posted 39 weeks 5 days ago

NATO endorses U.S. missile defense plan: Provocative or essential?

President Bush advanced his plans this week to build a controversial missile defense system in Eastern Europe by winning the unanimous backing of NATO allies and sealing a deal with the Czech Republic to build a radar facility for the system on its soil.

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Ben likes: 'Nyet' To NATO

Investor's Business Daily

NATO endorses President Bush's plan for missile defense in Europe despite Russia's objections. A nervous Europe goes along. For Moscow, this is a case of deja vu all over again. If you saw the headline, "Russia to U.S.: Drop Missile Defense," you'd be forgiven if you thought someone had left a 1986 newspaper laying around. That's what former Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev said to President Ronald Reagan when they met in Reykjavik, Iceland in October 1986. Gorbachev, like Putin today, demanded we drop SDI. Reagan refused.

Bush, even hampered by a Democratic Congress, is making missile defense a reality. We shudder at the prospect of a President Obama scrapping Reagan's dream in favor of his "aggressive personal diplomacy" with Tehran and Moscow. A President Obama would have supported the nuclear freeze and lost the Cold War.

A President McCain, however, would carry on Reagan's grand strategy in dealing with America's enemies -- we win, they lose. 

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Joel likes: Shooting for the stars

Center for American Progress

These programs have grown increasingly obsolete since the end of the Cold War. Why? Because there is no imminent, new ballistic missile threat.

The threat from a North Korean or Iranian long-range missile is still largely hypothetical. These missiles still garner a large share of the attention from policy makers, even though they constitute only one -- and the most difficult -- way to deliver nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. 

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ACLU attorney Ann Beeson
The Associated Press

Ann Beeson, the American Civil Liberties Union attorney for the plaintiffs challenging the government's wiretapping policy, addresses the media in Detroit.

Featured Topic | Posted 40 weeks 1 hour ago

Is the military skirting the law to spy on Americans?

The Pentagon is using the FBI to skirt legal restrictions on domestic surveillance to obtain private records of Americans' Internet service providers, financial institutions and telephone companies, the ACLU alleged Tuesday.

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Ben likes: The case for telecom immunity

Andrew C. McCarthy/National Review Online

Democrats continue to charge that the administration wants “blanket immunity” for the telecoms (much the way they misleadingly repeated that warrantless eavesdropping on cross-border al-Qaeda communications was “domestic spying”). In fact, the proposed immunity is very limited. It applies only to telecoms that either did nothing to help the government or that helped only on the basis of a written representation by the government that the program had been reviewed by the president and determined legal.

Thus, the immunity would not protect, say, a telecom that permitted surveillance on an informal request from a rogue agent without a written assurance of lawfulness -- which, in fairness, is the only type of conduct over which it might be appropriate to hold them liable.

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Joel likes: Unchecked government powers get abused

Glenn Greenwald/Salon

Ever since the Patriot Act was enacted, Russ Feingold had been almost single-handedly (at least among members of Congress) trying to warn of the potential for abuse of NSLs. Finally, a couple of months prior to the time the Patriot Act was to be renewed in early 2006, Feingold got some help in his crusade, when The Washington Post's Barton Gellman published a superb investigative article which detailed the FBI's increasingly frequent and broad use of NSLs, and surveyed the obvious dangers from these unchecked surveillance instruments.

It seems there are a few brand new lessons that we can perhaps draw from these revelations ... Allowing government officials to engage in surveillance on American citizens with no warrant requirement ensures that surveillance will be used for improper ends, against innocent Americans.  

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