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John McCain
The Associated Press

Deficit hawk John McCain is making the case for the stimulating effect of tax cuts.

Featured Topic | Posted 30 weeks 4 days ago

What's more important: Cutting taxes or balancing the budget?

Republican John McCain said Sunday that cutting taxes and stimulating the economy are more important than balancing the budget, and accused both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama of supporting tax hikes that would worsen the impact of a recession.

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Ben likes: The coming tax bomb

John F. Cogan and R. Glenn Hubbard/Wall Street Journal

The proper way to prepare to meet the entitlement challenge consists of three essential elements: Change entitlements to slow their cost growth; eliminate all nonessential spending in the remainder of the budget; and, most important but often overlooked, adopt policies that promote economic growth. The greater the economic growth, the larger the economic pie, and the greater the public and private resources available to finance entitlement obligations and other national priorities.

Last year's federal budget illustrates the importance of economic growth to the federal budget's overall health. The federal budget deficit was recorded as 1.2% of GDP, half its average level over the past four decades. This modest deficit occurred despite the fact that Congress has been on a decade-long spending binge; despite the fact that not a single entitlement program has been significantly reduced since the late 1990s and two entitlements, Medicare and farm support payments, have been significantly increased; and despite the fact that we are in the midst of costly but necessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The consensus that tax increases are needed for fiscal balance is wrong. The next president can fund our defense priorities, maintain tax cuts, and balance the budget. A tax-increase consensus blurs the basic debates over our budget priorities in 2008 -- and severely limits our choices in 2028. 

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Joel likes: It's our fault, too

Andrew Yarrow/Washington Post

The federal deficit halfway through this budget year is at an all-time high, the Treasury Department announced Thursday, and the national debt is growing as well. But before we blame Washington politicians for their irresponsibility, stupidity and cowardice -- and we should -- we may want to look at another culprit: the American people. We, too, bear some responsibility for our $9 trillion federal debt and $50 trillion in governmental promises of future benefits.

Yes, cutting taxes and increasing spending is irresponsible, as is allowing Medicare and Medicaid costs to rise so quickly, as is failing to achieve a long-term fix for Social Security and retirement security, as is developing (and protecting) a Byzantine tax code and dysfunctional budget process, as is pork. Yada yada yada. Washington deserves a lot of blame for the growing national debt, despite some genuinely thoughtful and courageous leaders, and must take the lead in solving the nation's fiscal problems.

But we share the blame. We want lower taxes but more government services. We go to great and morally questionable lengths to avoid paying the taxes that we now owe. We want to stop working as early as possible and draw retirement benefits for as long as possible. 

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money

It's going to take a lot of this.

Featured Topic | Posted 38 weeks 3 days ago

How to pay for the presidential candidates' proposals?

Barack Obama promises $4,000 credits to help pay college tuition. Hillary Rodham Clinton backs $25 billion for home heating subsidies.

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Ben likes: Who pays the bill?

Ed Morrissey/Captain's Quarters

USA Today took a look at the actual economic policies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and especially at the bottom line. They wonder who will pay the bill for the latest Democratic Party giveaway. The real answer: the taxpayers. Both candidates essentially offer the same discredited statist solutions that now burdens Europe. Neither have honestly addressed the costs to taxpayers, nor how it will add to both the deficit spending and the federal intrusion into markets that do better at producing results.

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Joel likes: Ignoring the budget crisis

Kevin G. Hall and Margaret Talev/McClatchy Newspapers

Both are counting on savings from reducing the U.S. presence in Iraq and rolling back some of President Bush's tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire after 2010, to pay for their new programs. Both expect that expanded use of electronic health records and other advances in medical information technology will defray some of the cost of moving to a universal health-care system.

Neither, however, has proposed a fix for the biggest near-term strain on the federal budget, the alternative minimum tax, or explained how they propose to balance the cost of their campaign promises with the looming expense of the aging baby boomers.

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John McCain and Russ Feingold, at the pinnacle of reform
The Associated Press

John McCain (rear) and Russ Feingold pushed a comprehensive campaign-finance law overhaul. Will GOP frontrunner McCain adhere to the spirit of reform?

Featured Topic | Posted 38 weeks 5 days ago

Should taxpayers fund presidential campaigns?

Politicians make and break promises all the time, but when it comes to campaign-finance reform, it's tough for a champion of reform to suddenly change his mind about accepting spending limits. And it's just as difficult for an upstart challenger to promise to use public financing when he's down in the polls and renege when he's surging.

Such is the dilemma facing John McCain and Barack Obama, who both pledged last year to abide by public financing and spending limits and who now are having second thoughts.

Should the candidates be held to their pledges? Should private contributions be banned? Or should taxpayer dollars fund presidential campaigns at all?

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Ben likes: McCain has his cake and eats it too

Katherine Mangu-Ward/Reason

When public funds are used as a guarantee for a loan being taken explicitly so that the candidate can stay out of the public financing system, surely it is time to throw in the towel. The FEC rules, like most of the byzantine campaign-finance-reform legislation that bears McCain's name, just makes more work for clever lawyers, who can always figure out a workaround.

As campaigns get longer and longer and more and more expensive, candidates are reluctant to accept spending caps, which is essentially what public financing amounts to. Public funding has always been a chimera, and, as his campaign's tactics reveal, no one knows that better than John McCain.

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Joel likes: The problem of Obama's public financing "pledge"

Jerome Armstrong/MyDD

Obama would be well-served to either fold up his "pledge" or "commitment" or whatever you want to call it, and take a bit of heat now, or else, say he's going to do public financing and be done with it, but trying to finesse the issue only serves up more ammo to McCain for his character attacks on Obama. We all know that swiftboating the credibility of the Democratic nominee's 'word' will be the Republicans' choice of attack, so don't give them ammo.

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The Associated Press

A big book, with big numbers

Featured Topic | Posted 41 weeks 4 days ago

The $3 trillion budget: Is the era of big government still with us?

President Bush, who offered up the first $2 trillion federal budget in 2002, today presented the first $3 trillion budget. There's more money for the Defense Department -- although the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan aren't included -- and a project deficit of $400 billion.

Why is the budget so big? What are Americans getting for their money? And what will the near-record deficit mean for the country's future?

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Ben likes: Will budget deficits crowd out tax cuts?

Larry Kudlow/National Review Online

What will McCain and Romney do? They both want to expand the defense budget and the size of the military, as they should, to strengthen our national security in the War on Terror. But this, of course, costs money. Big money. President Reagan argued successfully in the 1980s that low tax rates reignite economic growth — growth that was absolutely essential to generate the resources necessary for a strong national-security posture.

Will McCain and Romney adopt the Reagan approach, or will they see higher tax rates as a tradeoff to a stronger military à la Eisenhower?

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Joel likes: Economic disaster looms behind federal spending

Mike Lillis/The Washington Independent

Some of the nation’s top economists warned that America’s long-term spending trends present a far larger financial crisis. Much of the reluctance to act is political, for few lawmakers want to be remembered for raising taxes or cutting benefits for constituents. This is especially true in a contentious election year.

Richard Kogan, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said there would be no sweeping changes to federal spending patterns until the crisis grows more tangible—- and voters are willing to sacrifice in response. "You can’t do the right thing," Kogan said, "until you’ve got candidates who can win by doing the right thing. I think you have to wait for a new electorate."

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The Associated Press

It could be worse. But how much worse?

Featured Topic | Posted 41 weeks 6 days ago

With a "troubling" jobs report, is recession around the corner?

American employers cut 17,000 jobs last month -- the first such reduction in four years. President Bush called Friday's labor report "troubling," and it's tough to disagree. The loss of jobs is another indicator of a slowing economy. But policymakers and economists question whether the Bush stimulus is enough to avert a recession.

What should the government do, if anything, to spur the economy? Is America entering another recession, or something not quite as painful?

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Ben likes: Recession? Not yet

Investor's Business Daily

Congress' Joint Economic Committee recently created an Employment Recession Probability Index that uses changes in jobless claims and the unemployment rate. It has predicted every recession since World War II. What's it show today? Believe it or not, the likelihood the U.S. was in recession in January was 6% -- down from 35.5% in December.

So, yes, we've hit a slow patch. But no, despite the bleatings of a media establishment eager for "change" in Washington, we're not in a recession yet.

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Joel likes: The insignificance of zero

Paul Krugman/New York Times

So the new labor report is out, and it says that nonfarm payrolls actually fell last month. On the other hand, employment growth for December was revised up.

You shouldn’t take any of this seriously. A better guide is probably to average the last 2 or 3 months. What you get then is that employment is still growing, but v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y. In particular, employment growth is well short of what’s necessary to keep up with population growth. So even though it’s premature to say that jobs are shrinking, as a practical matter this makes no difference: the truth is that the jobs picture looks moderately dire.

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