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U.S. satellite images of an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor site
The Associated Press

The U.S. government on Thursday released images of a site in Syria believed to be a nuclear reactor built with North Korean know-how. The image on the left shows the results of an Israeli airstrike.

Featured Topic | Posted 37 weeks 5 hours ago

Should the U.S. strike rogue nuclear sites?

The United States has a message for would-be nuclear proliferators: We're watching you, and we see more than you think. That's the conclusion some experts draw from the U.S. government's unusual April 24 release of evidence that Syria may have been building a nuclear reactor with North Korea's assistance.

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Ben likes: North Korea, Syria, and Iran

Gordon G. Chang/Commentary's Contentions

Today, U.S. intelligence officials will give closed-door briefings to members of Congress about North Korea’s role in building a reactor in Syria. (Israel, it’s been confirmed, destroyed that nuclear facility with their air-strikes last September.)

Why are the briefings taking place now? This morning the New York Times’s David Sanger speculated that Vice President Cheney is trying to scuttle the six-party disarmament talks by highlighting Pyongyang’s proliferant behavior. Others have floated more intriguing theories. For example, Jon Wolfsthal, an analyst from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, thinks the Bush administration is releasing the information at this time to rescue its tentative deal with the North Koreans by letting them off the hook. “If it turns out we have them dead to rights -- that we have enough information on our own -- then we can eliminate this as a point of contention,” he says. “Maybe we don’t need to negotiate transparency with North Korea because we already know enough.” 

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Joel likes: Links to reactor?

New York Times

Until now, the administration has refused to discuss the video or the attack, other than in a highly classified briefing for a few allies and crucial members of Congress.

The timing of the administration’s decision to declassify information about the Syrian project has raised widespread suspicions, especially in the State Department, that Vice President Dick Cheney and other administration hawks were hoping that releasing the information might undermine a potential deal with North Korea that would take it off an American list of state sponsors of terrorism.

“Making public the pictures is likely to inflame the North Koreans,” said one senior administration official who would not speak on the record because the White House and the State Department have declared there would be no public comment until the evidence is released. “And that’s just what opponents of this whole arrangement want, because they think the North Koreans will stalk off.”

Ambassador Christopher Hill has argued in private that the Syrian episode and the uranium enrichment are side shows, and that the critical issue is stopping North Korea from producing more plutonium and giving up what it has. But his State Department colleagues say that he has been told not to defend the deal, or even explain it.

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Hillary Clinton
The Associated Press

Why is she sounding so tough on Iran?

Featured Topic | Posted 37 weeks 1 day ago

Should Hillary Clinton have threatened to "obliterate" Iran?

Sen. Hillary Clinton sounded the warning this week: Iran should never use nuclear weapons against Israel if it wants to survive.

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Ben likes: President Strangelove

Investor's Business Daily

She doesn't support missile defense or the war on terror. But Hillary Clinton pledges to defend Israel with nukes. In a tight race for the presidency, she's learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

As we've repeatedly noted, Sen. Clinton has vigorously opposed development of defensive systems that would let us shoot down Iranian missiles before they reach their targets. She has voted to slash budget requests for missile defense and has slammed Bush for "focusing obsessively on expensive and unproven missile defense technology."

If we were to attack Iran as Clinton pledges, wouldn't it be better to do it pre-emptively, using conventional weapons, as Israel did when it sent a squadron of F-16s to destroy Iraq's French-built Osirak nuclear reactor before it could go live and begin producing weapons-grade nuclear material? Wouldn't it be better to do so before Iran has the capability to launch nuclear-tipped Shahab missiles in the direction of Tel Aviv and Haifa?

Shouldn't it be before Iran has the ability to strike European and American targets? That's what Bush's plan for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic are designed to defend against.

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Joel likes: The intemperate candidate

Robert Scheer/The Nation

On primary election day in Pennsylvania, even with polls showing her well ahead in that state, Hillary went lower in her grab for votes. Seizing upon a question as to how she would respond to a nuclear attack by Iran--which doesn't have nuclear weapons--on Israel, which does, Hillary mocked reasoned discourse by promising to "totally obliterate them," in an apparent reference to the population of Iran. That is not a word gaffe; it is an assertion of the right of our nation to commit genocide on an unprecedented scale.

Clearly the heat of a campaign is not the proper setting for consideration of a response to a threat from a nation that is a long way from developing nuclear weapons. Obviously the danger of Iran's developing such weapons can be met with a range of alternatives, from the diplomatic to the military, that do not involve genocide and at any rate must be considered in moral and not solely political terms. Or is it base political ambition that would guide Clinton if she received that middle-of-the-night phone call?

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atomic blast
U.S. Department of Energy

The consequences of a "small" nuclear war would be widespread and long-lasting.

Featured Topic | Posted 39 weeks 1 day ago

Regional nuclear war would have worldwide fallout

If you think a small-scale nuclear war between, say, India and Pakistan would only devastate part of the Asian subcontinent, think again. A new report suggests that the effects of a regional nuclear exchange would have global environmental impact. What can world leaders do?

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Ben likes: By the shadow of our hand

Wretchard/Belmont Club

The Guardian describes an extraordinary manifesto authored "by five of the west's most senior military officers and strategists..." At first glance, the manifesto appears to mark a return to the policy of deterrence; a rueful admission that nothing but a revival of the balance of terror can now secure the West against forces that its publics are unwilling to mobilize against. That thought will ironically comfort many of those who lived through the long shadow of East versus West. After all, if deterrence kept the West safe against the Soviets for the long duration of the Cold War might not containment and the mutual balance of terror also safeguard it indefinitely against radical Islam?

Deterrence worked because it made peace the only alternative to utter destruction. But it worked against the Soviets because for all their belligerence could always be counted on to choose life. The Commissars may have been stupid but they were not crazy. Can the same assumption be made about Islamic radicals who desire death? From the point of a theocratic zealot the rational choice may be to hasten Armageddon.

On closer inspection the manifesto might not be about deterrence at all. It is about committing to prevent terrorists from acquiring WMDs at all costs. The reason Lord Inge's remark that "to tie our hands on first use or no first use removes a huge plank of deterrence" is so significant is that it brings the trigger point back from second-strike or launch on attack to one in which WMD acquisition itself becomes the casus belli. It is almost a form of pre-deterrence. 

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Joel likes: The greatest ecological threat of all

Tomdispatch interview with Jonathan Schell

You know, when I wrote The Fate of the Earth, back in 1982, I said that, first and foremost, nuclear weapons were an ecological danger. It wasn't that our species could be directly wiped out by nuclear war down to the last person. That would only happen through the destruction of the underpinnings of life, through nuclear winter, radiation, ozone loss. There has been an oddity of timing, because when the nuclear weapon was invented, people didn't even use the word "environment" or "ecosphere." The environmental movement was born later.

So, in a certain sense, the greatest -- or certainly the most urgent -- ecological threat of them all was born before the context in which you could understand it. The present larger ecological crisis is that context. In other words, global warming and nuclear war are two different ways that humanity, having grown powerful through science, through production, through population growth, threatens to undo the natural underpinnings of human, and all other, life. In a certain way, I think we may be in a better position today, because of global warming, to grasp the real import of nuclear danger. 

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Ship-based anti-ballistic missile
The Associated Press

Missile away!

Featured Topic | Posted 39 weeks 6 days ago

NATO endorses U.S. missile defense plan: Provocative or essential?

President Bush advanced his plans this week to build a controversial missile defense system in Eastern Europe by winning the unanimous backing of NATO allies and sealing a deal with the Czech Republic to build a radar facility for the system on its soil.

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Ben likes: 'Nyet' To NATO

Investor's Business Daily

NATO endorses President Bush's plan for missile defense in Europe despite Russia's objections. A nervous Europe goes along. For Moscow, this is a case of deja vu all over again. If you saw the headline, "Russia to U.S.: Drop Missile Defense," you'd be forgiven if you thought someone had left a 1986 newspaper laying around. That's what former Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev said to President Ronald Reagan when they met in Reykjavik, Iceland in October 1986. Gorbachev, like Putin today, demanded we drop SDI. Reagan refused.

Bush, even hampered by a Democratic Congress, is making missile defense a reality. We shudder at the prospect of a President Obama scrapping Reagan's dream in favor of his "aggressive personal diplomacy" with Tehran and Moscow. A President Obama would have supported the nuclear freeze and lost the Cold War.

A President McCain, however, would carry on Reagan's grand strategy in dealing with America's enemies -- we win, they lose. 

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Joel likes: Shooting for the stars

Center for American Progress

These programs have grown increasingly obsolete since the end of the Cold War. Why? Because there is no imminent, new ballistic missile threat.

The threat from a North Korean or Iranian long-range missile is still largely hypothetical. These missiles still garner a large share of the attention from policy makers, even though they constitute only one -- and the most difficult -- way to deliver nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. 

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The Associated Press

Iranian students protest U.N. sanctions against Tehran's nuclear program.

Featured Topic | Posted 45 weeks 6 days ago

If Iran is lying about nukes, what should the U.S. do?

The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday it confronted Iran for the first time with Western intelligence reports showing work linked to making atomic bombs and that Tehran had failed to provide satisfactory answers. The new information could spur more international sanctions against the mullahs. So far, though, existing sanctions have done little to undermine Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Are stronger sanctions the way to go? Should the United States take a different tack: face-to-face negotiations? Or should America prepare to use force to prevent Iran from acquiring a working atom bomb?

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Ben likes: Attack Iran... with words

Reuel Marc Gerecht/The New York Times

For those who believe that the clerics who rule Iran must never have an arsenal of nuclear weapons, the United States’ course of action ought to be clear: The Bush administration should advocate direct, unconditional talks between Washington and Tehran. Strategically, politically and morally, such meetings will help us think more clearly. Foreign-policy hawks ought to see such discussions as essential preparation for possible military strikes against clerical Iran’s nuclear facilities.

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Joel likes: Too easy to refuse

New York Times

So the fact that the major powers are still talking about even limited sanctions may surprise some in Tehran. But apparently even Moscow and Beijing have no doubts about the danger of Iran’s overt nuclear efforts. The longer Iran defies the Security Council and continues to enrich uranium, the closer its scientists get to mastering the skills for building a weapon. Without stronger punishments and stronger incentives, Iran is unlikely to halt its efforts.

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