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Cold War
The Associated Press

Russian troops practice for a parade in Moscow's Red Square.

Featured Topic | Posted 23 weeks 4 days ago

Would John McCain revive the Cold War?

It has been nearly 20 years since the Berlin Wall fell -- and nearly that long since it seemed Western-style democracy would take root in the former Soviet Union. Now, however, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has managed to neutralize his political opponents and has proven less-than-accomodating to American interests. Perhaps that's why Sen. John McCain has proposed expelling Russia from the G8 group of advanced industrial nations.

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Ben likes: McCain the Anti-War Warrior?

James Joyner/Outside-the-Beltway

Can anyone seriously doubt that a man who spent 5-1/2 years being tortured by the Viet Cong hates war? But one can simultaneously hate war and think it preferable to allowing despots to gain nuclear weapons.

I’m not sure undermining the United Nations, which has been virtually useless at preventing wars or enforcing its own Security Council mandates, is necessarily inconsistent with hating war. Regardless, McCain isn’t seeking to undermine it but rather augment it with a “League of Democracies,” which he has described as a “SEATO-type” ad hoc coalition of states with similar values. Indeed, pressed by this author on the question, he specifically said that he did not envision this as a military alliance ala NATO. Whose existence, oddly enough, hasn’t undermined the UN.

Nor has McCain advocated “new cold wars with Russia and China.” Rather, his critics, like Fareed Zakaria, have posited that as a likely outcome of the League of Democracies.

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Joel likes: The militarist

Matthew Yglesias/The American Prospect

Under the circumstances, it's not surprising that the GOP is poised to nominate a presidential candidate who will appeal to its anti-war base. What is surprising is that the candidate is Sen. John McCain.

The candidate who, despite his protestations in a March speech that he "hates war" not only stridently backed the 2003 invasion of Iraq but has spent years calling on the United States to depose every dictator in the world. He's the candidate of ratcheting-up action against North Korea and Iran, of new efforts to undermine the United Nations, and of new cold wars with Russia and China.

Rather than hating war, he sees it as integral to the greatness of the nation, and military service as the highest calling imaginable. It is, in short, not Bush but McCain, who among practical politicians holds truest to the vision of a foreign policy dominated by militaristic unilateralism.

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Bring them home
The Associated Press

Withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq would be just the beginning.

Featured Topic | Posted 28 weeks 3 days ago

Is the U.S. becoming more isolationist?

Has the war in Iraq inspired a new isolationism in the United States? "America does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy," John Quincy Adams famously said. "She is the well-wisher to freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." After five years of hard fighting, some Americans are looking to Adams again as a guiding light.

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Ben likes: That old isolationist tug

Victor Davis Hanson/The American

In the heart of the most ardent internationalist there now grows the feeling that it might just be good for Europe or South Korea to defend itself -- and for once take the flak that concrete action, not armchair moralizing, invites. Americans of every persuasion are beginning to think that a reduction in our global profile might be both profitable for ourselves and also good medicine for our friends -- like when 30-something-year-old children are finally asked to move out of the house and make their own car payments.

Still, the new isolationists and protectionists do not answer how the Westernized world would deal with China without American leadership and power. Who would contain lunatic regimes rising in South America, or Islamic terrorism, or petro-rich Middle Eastern autocracies seeking the bomb? What would be the global consequences of curtailing the lucrative, wide-open American market for India, China, and other emerging powers?

But then isolationism and protectionism never do evoke such long-term worries. They have always followed short-term outbursts of emotion that may feel good in the here and now but are sorely regretted later.

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Joel likes: McCain versus the isolationists

Matt Yglesias/The Atlantic

As anyone familiar with George W. Bush's 2006 State of the Union Address knows, "isolationist" means "anyone who doesn't favor repeating the enormous blunders of the past six years." In that sense, the forces of isolationism really are growing, and one could even have imagined a President Romney or a President Huckabee turning out to be a closet "isolationist" once in office. But John McCain wanted a pointless and counterproductive policy of rogue state rollback before it was cool.

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The Associated Press

Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party's Ma Ying-jeou, center, won in a landslide on Saturday. Ma favors closer relations with mainland China.

Featured Topic | Posted 29 weeks 20 hours ago

Should the U.S. promote Taiwan's independence?

 

The United States policy toward Taiwan is a deceptively confusing one: One China. In theory, that means a free and democratic Taiwan unified with a free and democratic China. In practice, however, the U.S. policy is a delicate diplomatic game in which the United States supports democratic elections on Taiwan but not too much.

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Ben likes: Taiwan Strait tightrope

Ted Galen Carpenter/Wall Street Journal Asia

Ma Ying-jeou's victory in Taiwan's presidential election Saturday promises to usher in a period of relative calm in the island's turbulent relations with mainland China. Mr. Ma's Kuomintang Party is determined to end the bold and provocative policies that President Chen Shui-bian has pursued toward Beijing over the past eight years. Beijing and Washington will both be relieved to have a government committed to preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait rather than pushing the envelope on a transition from de facto to de jure independence.

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Joel likes: An opportunity for Beijing

Douglas Paal/New York Times

Today, Beijing can reduce the chances for a crisis that could destabilize the regime’s dream of continued economic growth and peace on its borders. Moreover, China can improve the prospects for long-term stability by rewarding the Taiwan people with some accommodation of their goals.

For example, China can move preemptively and largely symbolically to grant Taiwan international space by allowing its representative to observe the World Health Assembly in May. Beijing can implement a ceasefire in their contest for the allegiance of small states in the Pacific, Africa and Latin America. The Chinese army can halt new deployments opposite Taiwan and reduce the scale and tempo of military exercises. The list of options runs long. 

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John McCain
Flickr user hatch1921

Realist? Neocon?

Featured Topic | Posted 29 weeks 6 days ago

Will McCain practice cowboy diplomacy?

Republican neoconservatives believe that John McCain is one of them. But so do the so-called "realists" who are less enamored of America's ability to change the world through military means. A look at McCain's record has its appeal to both sides -- strong support for the war in Iraq, but skepticism about deploying troops in Lebanon and Somalia.

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Ben likes: What a McCain presidency might look like

Paul Mirengoff/Powerline

Richard Nixon is the best parallel I can think of from the last century. Nixon adopted or proposed a host of liberal initiatives -- affirmative action, wage/price controls, even a guaranteed annual income. He did so, I believe, out of indifference. Nixon's goal with respect to domestic policy was to remain sufficiently viable politically to conduct American foreign policy.

There's some of this in McCain. Foreign and national security affairs are his passion, and he cares little about social issues. However, he is hardly indifferent about matters such as government spending, immigration, and clean government. Motivation and interest aside, a McCain presidency would likely resemble Nixon's in that he would combine hard-line foreign policy with some centrist or liberal domestic policies. But because McCain is far more principled, he surely would be more resistant to a broad liberal agenda than Nixon was.

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Joel likes: Who is John McCain?

Steve Benen/The Carpetbagger Report

That’s the inherent problem with a senator who’s tried to reinvent himself more than once — a sense of his core values and principles starts to disappear. No one knows who the “real” McCain is because he seems to be constantly changing, hoping to capitalize on the prevailing political winds.

When it comes to Republican schisms between neocons and realists, McCain apparently wants both sides to see him as on their team.

Who’s right? Who knows? McCain is a man of principle — weak, malleable, and easily forgotten principles.

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The Associated Press

The U.S. spends more than $12 billion a month on operations in Iraq.

Featured Topic | Posted 32 weeks 5 days ago

Was the Iraq war worth $3 trillion?

War is costly. But the Iraq war might be more costly than many people predicted. Former Clinton administration economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard budget expert Linda Bilmes estimate the final tab on Iraq will be an eye-popping $3.2 trillion.

It's one thing to focus on costs, but what about benefits? Was the war worth the cost? Have there been any advantages? Should the war in Iraq be judged on purely economic terms?

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Ben likes: Weighing the costs and benefits

Tim Kane/Heritage Foundation

When I confronted Stiglitz about ignoring the potential benefits of the Iraq war during a 2006 BBC debate, he countered that the paper is merely the first in a conversation, hinting that assessing benefits is more difficult. Yet his paper makes no such hedges, concluding bluntly, “Expenditures on the Iraq war have no benefits [for America].”

Elsewhere, Stiglitz and Bilmes claim that the only clear beneficiaries of the war are “oil companies” and “certain defense contractors.” No mention of the Kurds or the Shiites. No mention of the widespread winds of change in Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This is willful ignorance, not the “cool, hard analysis of the kind for which economics has long earned a reputation” that the authors pretend.

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Joel likes: Iraq/Recession

Matthew Yglesias/The Atlantic

If we could go back in time and invest the hundreds of billions spent in Iraq on something more productive, we'd be in better economic shape today. Alternatively, if we could take the vast sums we're currently spending in Iraq and somehow frictionlessly transmute that into some kind of better-designed domestic stimulus, that would help the economy over the short run. But in terms of actually available policy options (the time machine would be handy, though) bringing the war to an end, though strategically vital and good for America's long-term economic outlook, doesn't seem to me to be something likely to help the country with our short-term economic challenges.

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