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Hillary Clinton and Rep. Baron Hill
The Associated Press

Hillary Clinton is closing the popular vote and delegate gaps with Barack Obama. But also she needs superdelegates, such as Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., if she hopes to win the nomination.

Featured Topic | Posted 36 weeks 5 days ago

Superdelegate stalemate: Can the Democrats settle on a candidate and avert a schism?

The Democratic nomination contest could go all the way to June, and perhaps even to the Democratic National Convention in August.

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Ben likes: 'Popular' is Hillary's middle name

Michael Barone/National Review Online

One thing many people haven’t noticed about Hillary Clinton’s 55 percent to 45 percent victory over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary is that it put her ahead of Obama in the popular vote. Her 214,000-vote margin in the Keystone State means that she has won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama.

If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes.

Moreover, she may be able to maintain that lead, despite an expected Obama victory in North Carolina on May 6, by rolling up big popular vote margins in West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1. So it’s likely that Clinton will be able to argue that undecided super-delegates should heed the will of the people.

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Joel likes: Heading toward the danger zone

Bob Herbert/New York Times

Hillary Clinton may be behind, and she may lose. But she is now widely seen as the tougher of the two candidates, the one who is more resolute, who will fight harder and longer (and, yes, more unscrupulously) to achieve her desired ends. An edge in toughness is hardly a good quality to cede to your opponent.

Some Democratic officials who were worried about having Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket in November are now expressing concern about Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton’s bar-brawl tactics have raised her negatives sharply, but they’ve also raised doubts about Mr. Obama. Is he a fighter? Is he tough enough to take on the G.O.P.?

One of Senator Obama’s favorite phrases is “the fierce urgency of now.” There is nothing more fiercely urgent for him right now than to reassure voters and superdelegates that an Obama candidacy will not lead to a Democratic debacle in November.

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Al Gore at An Inconvenient Truth premiere
The Associated Press

Is Al Gore ready for his second act? Is America?

Featured Topic | Posted 41 weeks 2 days ago

Is a Gore-led ticket still possible?

Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats' nominee to face Republican John McCain in the November presidential election, right? Right?

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Ben likes: Al Gore is inevitable

John Derbyshire/National Review Online

What to do? What to do? The party bosses are slumped in their seats, staring blankly into space, or doing job searches on their Blackberries. All is gloom and despondency.

Then … A fanfare of trumpets! A shaft of light! Into the hall rides a man on a white stallion! Stirred from their lethargy, the delegates begin rising from their seats. They start cheering and applauding. The rider reaches the podium, dismounts, and strides to the dais. The applause is deafening now. Cheers ring round the hall! Women are weeping; men are hugging each other.

Broad-shouldered and confident, his sternocleidomastoid muscle flexing and rippling, the Rescuer sweeps his powerful gaze around the hall. A hush falls. He begins to speak. As he speaks, the same though settles on every listener simultaneously: This is the one. He has always been the one. What fools we have been!

Don’t think it couldn’t happen. Don’t, in fact, think it isn’t going to happen. The Democratic party has two lame candidates, without a dime’s worth of executive experience between them.

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Joel likes: Gore, more than before

Larry Abrams/Huffington Post

Al Gore has many things to recommend him. As opposed to Hillary, he actually is quite experienced. Hillary's supposed 35 years of experience consists of exactly seven years of elective office.

As opposed to Obama, Gore really is a candidate of systemic change, and he's got the Nobel Prize to prove it.

Gore is not only the best Democratic candidate who could be put up at this point, he might end up being the only alternative at a deadlocked convention.

A Gore-Obama ticket would be a winning Democratic combination -- for a change -- in November. 

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Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton

Featured Topic | Posted 44 weeks 23 hours ago

Will Florida and Michigan delegates decide the Democratic nomination?

With the nominating contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama getting ever-tighter, there's a growing call -- mostly from Clinton partisans -- to allow Michigan and Florida primary results to count at the Democratic National Convention.

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Ben likes: Ben likes: Let's Re-vote in Michigan and Florida

Newt Gingrich/Wall Street Journal

Hold the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries again. The voters -- not the party insiders -- have the moral authority to choose the nominee. Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida should get that chance. Then in November, we'll have a fair fight. And I'll be honest -- it may not help the chances for a Republican victory in the fall. But it will help something even more important: the integrity of our political process.

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Joel likes: Should Michigan and Florida vote again?

Joan Walsh/Salon

Lately I find myself wondering: Why aren't more powerful Democrats in both the Obama and Clinton camps lobbying for a revote in Florida and Michigan? Is it simply about money? Sure, it would be expensive, but both candidates are raising money phenomenally.

And sure, the party would like to save some of that Democratic cash to fight John McCain in November. But I have to wonder, what's worse for Democrats: A protracted battle that results in a near-tie, with superdelegates carrying the day in Denver (leaving plenty of cash to fight McCain but one camp or the other furious), or a party whose coffers are maybe depleted (though I can't imagine that), but whose supporters know that democracy, though expensive, prevailed.

I'm not sure I can answer that question, but my gut tells me it's the latter.

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Obama Clinton
The Associated Press

Their battle might go all the way to the Denver convention.

Featured Topic | Posted 46 weeks 3 days ago

Will superdelegates decide the Democratic nomination?

The 2008 primary elections have brought thousands of new voters to the polls and caucusing sites. So it only makes sense, then, that the Democratic nominee might be selected by party insiders -- right?

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Ben likes: Hillary... by any means necessary

Rich Lowry/National Review

Then, there are the so-called superdelegates. They are roughly 800 Democratic elected officials who can decide on their own which candidate to back regardless of the primaries and caucuses. Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson says there is no difference between delegates chosen by voters and the superdelegates — they are all delegates with a vote at the convention. True enough, except one tranche of delegates has a democratic legitimacy the other doesn’t.

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Joel likes:It's up to superdelegates to prove Democrats believe in democracy

Gary Younge/Guardian

The superdelegates will almost certainly determine the outcome. If they do, it will not just have the potential of making the entire process a travesty of democracy but also a tragedy for the Democratic party. For if the superdelegates go against the popular will of the voters, whoever emerges as "victor" will enter the presidential election shorn of democratic legitimacy and devoid of electoral credibility.

"It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided," said Nancy Pelosi, the House of Representatives' speaker. Too true. But while Pelosi's argument answers the question about what the superdelegates should do at the party convention in August, it begs another. If superdelegates are going to follow the popular vote anyway, why have them in the first place?

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The Associated Press

The party conventions could be livelier than usual this year.

Featured Topic | Posted 49 weeks 1 day ago

Looking to Super-duper Tuesday: Are brokered conventions possible?

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a drawn-out war of attrition for the Democratic presidential nomination, sure to be fighting for delegates beyond next Tuesday no matter who comes out ahead on the primary season's biggest day. A similar scenario may be developing on the Republican side, with none of the candidates emerging with the necessary 1,200 delegates to lock up the nomination.

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Ben likes: Death by brokered convention

Daniel Larison/Eunomia

A brokered convention would draw a lot of media attention, and it would give endless material for political reporters and pundits to talk about. But while there would be a lot of media exposure it’s not clear to me that this works to the benefit of the eventual nominee and the party. In some respects, a hard-fought nomination contest improves all of the candidates running and prepares them for the general election, but as with any long, drawn-out internal contest the winner at the end comes away muddied and bloodied and vulnerable.

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Joel likes: The convention delegate process explained

Sam Boyd/The American Prospect

Brokered conventions (where no candidate arrives with a majority of the delegates) are predicted every four years, and every four years they don't actually happen. However, it does seem likely this year that we'll, at the very least, see a closer result than any since 1980 or even 1968. We might not even know who will win until the convention gets underway. Edwards could act as a kingmaker by throwing his delegates to Clinton or Obama and putting him or her over the top (his delegates would not be required to follow his instructions, but they will likely be personally loyal to him). Or, unelected superdelegates could throw the nomination to a candidate who comes in second in pledged delegates. Even if the result is known at the start of the convention, it might not be determined until June or July.

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