Thompson never had any fire; thus, he didn't catch fire. He missed a darn good opportunity. The GOP race this time around is a contest to determine which candidate can be the default Republican nominee—the one who offends the least number of primary voters. Each of the major contenders alienates (or provokes concern among) large swaths of Republicans. Rudy Giuliani fancies gay rights and abortion rights (not gun rights). Mitt Romney has flip-flopped on social issues. John McCain is despised by Republican activists for having passed campaign reform legislation and for having questioned the Bush II tax cuts. Mike Huckabee's fundamentalism scares the country clubbers. Thompson, in theory, would appeal for each of the three main GOP constituencies.

The former Massachusetts governor has little appeal in South Carolina, according to the polls. He is leaving the state to Mike Huckabee (who presumably has a strong evangelical base there), John McCain (who South Carolina voters still remember from 2000), and Fred Thompson (who needs a good showing to keep his campaign afloat). That means Romney can devote time and money to Nevada in a way that others can't. In a primary where only 30,000 to 40,000 Republicans are expected to show up (New Hampshire saw just under half a million), it doesn't take much effort to make a dent.