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The Associated Press

The party conventions could be livelier than usual this year.

Featured Topic | Posted 43 weeks 5 days ago

Looking to Super-duper Tuesday: Are brokered conventions possible?

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a drawn-out war of attrition for the Democratic presidential nomination, sure to be fighting for delegates beyond next Tuesday no matter who comes out ahead on the primary season's biggest day. A similar scenario may be developing on the Republican side, with none of the candidates emerging with the necessary 1,200 delegates to lock up the nomination.

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Ben likes: Death by brokered convention

Daniel Larison/Eunomia

A brokered convention would draw a lot of media attention, and it would give endless material for political reporters and pundits to talk about. But while there would be a lot of media exposure it’s not clear to me that this works to the benefit of the eventual nominee and the party. In some respects, a hard-fought nomination contest improves all of the candidates running and prepares them for the general election, but as with any long, drawn-out internal contest the winner at the end comes away muddied and bloodied and vulnerable.

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Joel likes: The convention delegate process explained

Sam Boyd/The American Prospect

Brokered conventions (where no candidate arrives with a majority of the delegates) are predicted every four years, and every four years they don't actually happen. However, it does seem likely this year that we'll, at the very least, see a closer result than any since 1980 or even 1968. We might not even know who will win until the convention gets underway. Edwards could act as a kingmaker by throwing his delegates to Clinton or Obama and putting him or her over the top (his delegates would not be required to follow his instructions, but they will likely be personally loyal to him). Or, unelected superdelegates could throw the nomination to a candidate who comes in second in pledged delegates. Even if the result is known at the start of the convention, it might not be determined until June or July.

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The Associated Press

He couldn't win a primary race this time.

Featured Topic | Posted 43 weeks 5 days ago

Edwards out: Does this help Clinton or Obama?

Today, we were going to tell you why John Edwards is staying in the Democratic race -- so that he could play kingmaker in the event of a brokered Democratic convention between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama this summer. There's only one problem with the scenario: Edwards is announcing today that he is getting out of the race now.

How did Edwards go from being his party's vice presidential nominee to an also-ran? How did he affect the race? And what does his departure mean for the battle between Clinton and Obama?

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Ben likes: Edwards Quits -- One Woman Hardest Hit

Ed Morrissey/Captain's Quarters

Unlike other candidates who have dropped from contention, Edwards actually has a significant number of delegates. They can now vote for whomever they desire at the convention, although an Edwards endorsement will likely carry a lot of weight. However, the influence of Edwards goes well beyond delegate counts, and both of the remaining candidates know it.

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Joel likes: Populism's candidate

Chris Hayes/The Nation

No matter who wins the Democratic nomination, the fact remains that the Edwards campaign has set the domestic policy agenda for the entire field. He was the first with a bold universal healthcare plan, the first with an ambitious climate change proposal that called for cap-and-trade, and the leader on reforming predatory lending practices and raising the minimum wage to a level where it regains its lost purchasing power. Edwards's rhetoric has started to bleed into his rivals' speeches as well.

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The Associated Press

Chris Elsenbast, 17, of Ames, Iowa, worked the phones for Barack Obama. Clearly, it paid off.

Featured Topic | Posted 44 weeks 17 hours ago

Is 2008 the year of the youth voter (at last)?

Every election year since the 26th Amendment extended the franchise to 18-year-olds has been heralded as the year of the youth vote. And every year has been a disappointment. Until this year. Maybe.

Young voters have been a potent force for Barack Obama's campaign, and Saturday's primary was no different. Obama got solid majorities among voters who were 18 to 24 years old, 25 to 29 years old and those 30 to 39 years old. Younger voters have also gravitated to Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

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Ben likes: Choose or lose

Michael Barone/National Review Online

Ronald Reagan in the 1980s attracted young voters to his party. Bill Clinton in the 1990s did the same. But in this decade, George W. Bush has conspicuously failed at the important task of capturing the youth vote. Rather to the contrary. Voters under 30 were the age group least likely to support Bush in 2000 or 2004. They were the age group least likely to support Republicans when they had a good year in 2002 and when they had a bad year in 2006. The weakness of Republicans among young voters is one reason — and, you could argue, the main demographic reason — that Democrats go into the 2008 campaign as the party more voters would like to see win.

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Joel likes: Obama's youth-driven movement

Roger Cohen/New York Times

Bryant Jones is from Idaho. He made clear he’d voted for Bush at least once. But he’s now had it with “my-way-or-the-highway politics” and the same old faces.

“I’m 25 and for my entire life a Bush or a Clinton has been in the executive office, either as vice-president or president” he said. “The United States is not about dynasties.” This young man represents something important. A new generation – for whom race is an issue overcome and baby-boomers are old folk fighting arcane battles and post-9/11 thinking must cede to post-post-9/11 creativity – is hungry for hope and willing to come even to places as hopeless as Greeleyville to demonstrate that.

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The Associated Press

Three amigos? Obama, Clinton and Edwards compete for delegates in South Carolina.

Featured Topic | Posted 44 weeks 3 days ago

What's at stake in South Carolina? Clinton and Obama battle for supremacy

NPR

After weeks of exchanging barbs about race, the remaining Democratic candidates for president square off in South Carolina's primary on Saturday. In a state where roughly half of Democratic voters are black, many pollsters and commentators are giving Barack Obama the edge. But Hillary Clinton and her ex-president husband have been campaigning hard in the Palmetto State. And John Edwards is just trying to be heard.

When the ballots are counted, will the winner be the best candidate to face the Republican nominee in November? Has the racially-tinged campaign in South Carolina poisoned the election for the Democrats?

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Ben likes: No race war to see here

Philip Klein/The American Spectator

Hillary Clinton, whose husband benefited politically from his strong ties to the black community, has seen her support among that demographic group evaporate in early nominating contests. In Nevada, Barack Obama captured 83 percent of the black vote and in Michigan where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, 68 percent of African Americans voted for "uncommitted" over the former first lady.

These trends have forced her to virtually concede South Carolina to Obama, where blacks make up roughly half of the Democratic electorate, and she'll likely be in trouble in other states with large black populations.

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Joel likes: The coming long campaign

Sam Boyd/The American Prospect

Essentially, Clinton and Obama will enter February 5 with roughly the same number of delegates and, if Obama wins South Carolina, similar chances at winning most states (though I think Clinton will retain an advantage). But, no matter what happens, it seems likely that the two candidates will not differ in total delegates by more than 10 percent or so. What does this mean? It means we'll have a lot more campaigning left after February 5. Neither candidate will be ready to concede and neither candidate will be clearly winning so the campaign will continue.

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The Associated Press

It wasn't all smiles in South Carolina.

Featured Topic | Posted 45 weeks 4 hours ago

Cleaning up after the Myrtle Beach debate

CNN

The Democrats' Monday night debate in Myrtle Beach had substance and spirit. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama traded barbs over their records. John Edwards pleaded for attention. "This kind of squabbling -- how many children is this going to get health care? How many people are going to get education because of this? How many kids are going to get to go to college because of this?" Edwards said to cheers from the crowd.

But the Democratic contenders did discuss their plans to stimulate the economy, reform health care, and withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq.

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Ben likes: Debate drunkblogging -- the wrap!

Stephen Green/Vodkapundit

If tonight’s debate was any small indicator of how the Democratic nominee will run in the general election, then I’d say the Republican nominee has some small chance of winning. And that’s no small feat, given that tonight Clinton and Obama were only fighting over South Carolina.

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Joel likes: Obama was infuriating, inspiring

Eve Fairbanks/The New Republic

One thing I do like about this debate is that its freewheeling, hot emotion better reveals the candidates' various poles, rather than allowing them to stay relentlessly on message and project uncomplicated selves. Take Obama -- the last hour and a half has captured for me both why I find him frustrating and why I admire him.

Early in the debate, he sounded like it was Hillary's world and he just lives in it. Too many of his responses began with "Hillary, that's not what I said," which is both huffy in style and bereft in substance, since it turns the argument to semantics and quibbles over quotations that can't be fact-checked up on the stage, rather than what everybody actually meant.

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