Fearless prediction: John McCain will be our next president
Posted 2 years 25 weeks ago byJohn McCain will be the next president of the United States.
It gives me no pleasure to come to this conclusion. I think McCain is wrong on the war, irresponsible on taxes and -- by his own admission -- not terribly knowledgeable about the economy. I do take solace knowing that he's not a slave to the party line; if Bill Clinton invented the "Sister Souljah moment," then McCain is the all-time career leader in the category. But he is not the person I'd like to see in that office.
But Hillary Clinton won't beat him. The Republicans have a 16-year head start on painting her in almost entirely negative terms, with her name featured in bold capital letters in the vast majority of fund-raising letters sent out by the GOP in the last two decades. She is, simply put, radioactive to a large portion of the electorate. Some of this is unfair; some of this maybe not. But she cannot pick up enough of the remaining votes to beat John McCain. And given anger about her primary campaign, she might not be able to count on the support of many Democrats.
But Clinton still wants to win the nomination. She cannot do so through conventional means -- winning the majority of pledged delegates headed to the Denver convention. So her campaign has resorted to the "kitchen sink strategy," doing everything it can to make Barack Obama unpalatable to voters. This may or may not work during the remaining primary campaign; if Obama survives to the general election, though, I believe it will be devastating to his prospects.
It is widely believed that Jeremiah Wright's sermons came to light as the result of a Clinton "oppo dump." Perhaps they would've emerged anyway. And while I think there's a context to Wright's "God damn America" statement -- you might be angry, too, if you came of age as a black man during the transition from Jim Crow to the Civil Rights Era -- I don't think that Obama can put enough distance between himself and his pastor for enough white voters to care. Even if, as I suspect is the case, Obama doesn't share those sentiments himself. You can expect to hear "God damn America!" in advertisements from now until November. Barring some act of political magic -- and, who knows, Obama is the one candidate who might be able to pull it off -- there is no way that doesn't eviscerate a presidential campaign.
That leaves McCain.
Democrats, it might be time to get ready for 2012. We can beat 'em then. I just know it.
Thoughts
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mccain,s choice for vice president.
Submitted on April 1st, 2008 by Anonymousit,s awfully funny that since the question of mccain,s age is popping up so much lately that all of a sudden candolica rice,s excercise regamin is being brought up to perhaps show she has the strength and youth to carry on in case of john,s sudden demise. what a ticket, she,s afro american and a woman. remember you heard it here first. fireman ralph.
Distance
Submitted on March 18th, 2008 by Anonymous"I don't think that Obama can put enough distance between himself and his pastor for enough white voters to care."
Jumping in here a little late. BUT, I think from today's speech we can say he doesn't need to put any distance between them. He's taking a "love the sinner hate the sin" approach that I think will work. My confidence in Obama was completely restored today. He told it like it is. He said the things we needed to hear and I hope we can have the privilege of his intellect and insight for the next 8 years.
A hard road for Mc Cain.
Submitted on March 15th, 2008 by MercyphotographyChuck,
If a majority of Americans think the Iraq war can be won on a military stand point, there are just plainly wrong. Let me remind you that, last week alone, 12 American Soldiers lost their lifes in Iraq.
Why don't you try to explain to their families that the so call " surge" is working?
Try to explain it to the 2.5 Millions people, that had to leave Iraq (more than 10% of the population)? I have the feeling that you do not know Iraq first hand, sorry to say, but I do.
On the topic of the economy, I really do not understand how anybody could defend ( specially a Republican) any part of the so call " Bush Policies"...it is a train wreck in the making. Not only for America, but it could put the world economy in a situation far worse than 1929.
The fact that Mc Cain has hired " Bush Brain" for his campain, do not give a sense of good judgement on his part.
Mercyphotography
Answering the comments section
Submitted on March 15th, 2008 by Chuck_JohnsonJoel,
I'm glad you've finally thrown in the towel on this election campaign. I had to admit the sad truth to myself when Mitt Romney flamed out.
Let me address some of the naysayers on this forum, though.
First Mercyphotography:
1. Actually, a majority of Americans believe we are winning the war. Here's the Pew research poll that backs that up.
2. The anti-immigration types have nowhere to go and they know it. Better to go with McCain who has at least promised that he will build the wall and admits that he was wrong on McCain-Kennedy.
3. McCain has an almost perfect pro-life record and has voted for the marriage amendment. Obama tried to use taxpayer funded abortions when he was in the Illinois State Senate.
4. There just isn't any proof of your last statement. We may not even be in a recession. Why would you take more money out of the economy and hope that that would spur it on? Less money in a system means less spending, which means less job creation. It just isn't wise.
Fortunately, McCain has said that we may need even larger tax cuts.
Finally, the whole "more Democrats" are voting pitch isn't entirely accurate. Many may be voting for a specific candidate and
------------------------------
Chuck Johnson is a student at Claremont McKenna College. Feel free to contact him.
I don't think so.
Submitted on March 15th, 2008 by MercyphotographyDear Joel,
Mc Cain has huge problems of his own.
1- Iraq: 75 % of US voters are now against the war. They understand, that it is a war America can't win and can not afford.
2- Immigration: Because of the Mc Cain/Kennedy bill, the GOP voters, in the Lou Dobbs camp, will not trust him on the issue. The Latinos will not vote for him either.
3-The Evangelists vote: Mc Cain has been all over the place as far as attacking them a few years back to courting them for votes now.
4-The Economy: From being against the Bush Tax Cut, Mc Cain has done once again a 180 on the topic and is now for it. With an economy in crisis, it will be necessary to increase tax revenue one way or another.
The Dems have to stop internal fighting ( mainly on ego issues) and attack Mc Cain.
Mercyphotography
I feel for ya, Joel
Submitted on March 14th, 2008 by Jim LakelyI give you credit. You've publicly acknowledged reality quicker than I did when Clinton went up against Dole. (I indulged about 48 hours of hope after Dole tapped the admirable Jack Kemp as potential veep.)
Don't worry, my friend. I'll call in a few favors and make sure you have an administrative job down at Gitmo in the new regime. No breaking rocks or straining your eyes and cramping your fingers painting tiny American flag lapel pins for you. No sir.
Have I trotted out that joke for you before? If so, I'll start working on new material.
Cheers!
Jim
That's one way of looking at it
Submitted on March 14th, 2008 by AnonymousIf you look at the actual number of voters participating in the election primaries, there is a wide margin between the number of Democrats to the number of Republicans. According to a poll hosted by CNN, if the Democratic nomination went to Obama, approximatly 44% of the voters would vote for McCain and 58% would vote for Obama. Likewise, if Clinton won the Democratic nomination, roughly 50% would vote for Clinton and 45% would vote for McCain. Needless to say these are strictly rough estimates; but nevertheless, it's something to consider.