Stimulating the economy
Posted 31 weeks 4 days ago byThe good news? Democrats say they want to work with Republicans on stimulating the economy.
The weird news?
Democrats are considering three ideas — an extension of unemployment insurance, expansion of food stamps and perhaps most importantly, rebate checks or more for every single taxpayer. The amount of these checks is being debated, but they would be similar to the $300 checks taxpayers received in 2001. President Bush has not been specific about his ideas beyond calling for a permanent extension of his 2001 tax cuts, which expire in 2010.
I wasn't in favor of the 2001 rebate -- I thought that money should've been used to pay down the national debt or something like that -- but it made a little more sense in 2001 than it does now. Why? Because in 2001 the government was running a surplus. A nice big surplus. Now, though, the government is spending lots of money that it doesn't have.
And a rebate to every taxpayer in America? That $300 (or whatever it turns out to be) will be helpful to working families, but does Bill Gates really need it?
This Nobel laureate makes sense to me:
If one is going to give a short-term tax rebate as a fiscal stimulus, I would target a short-term, limited-time-only decrease in the payroll tax — what individuals pay for Social Security and Medicare. That's a regressive tax, so on average it would go to people at the lower end of the income scale. One should limit that payroll decrease in terms of time, say one or two years while the economy remains weak, which would avoid creating huge deficits.
It seems that's a well you would only want to go to one time -- this time -- because repeated trips would end up undermining Social Security and Medicare. But as a one-time solution, it would target relief to people who need it while avoiding incurring ever-greater deficits and debt. For Pelosi, who has made a big deal about Democrats restoring pay-as-you-go rules, it seems like a smart way to go.
UPDATE: Obviously, more unemployment insurance and extended food stamps will also cost (borrowed money) but they do have the advantage of targeting help where it's needed. As opposed to borrowing more money to spread around indiscriminately.














Thoughts
No, I don't think you're missing the mark
Submitted on January 12th, 2008 by JoelThis is probably a tangent, but I really hope never to hear the term "tax and spend Democrats" ever again from Republicans. Because, it now seems clear, the GOP borrows and spends. One seems to be more responsible than another.
I don't think it's always wrong for the government to go into debt. I think in times of national emergency -- unexpected war or unexpected fiscal crisis -- it's the responsible thing to do, but only as a short-term measure. If you choose to invade a country and sustain an occupation for a good half-decade or more, though, it seems like you better be ready to pay for it.
But aside from that, debt tends to become a drag on a country. One of the more fascinating aspects of "Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed The World," is that America earned a spot at the table of Great Powers, in part, by lending them money while they staggered under the debt burden of war.
Draw your own parallels.
Which is why if we're going to have a stimulus -- and as a political matter it seems inevitable; politicians don't want to be seen as doing nothing, especially in an election year -- then I'd hope our leaders would be looking for the opportunities to get the most bang for literally the least bucks. But I'm not optimistic.
What about the dollar?
Submitted on January 12th, 2008 by OtherJoelFirst: HI JOEL! Great to "see" you again.
I admit to following the major candidates' platforms somewhat half-heartedly, but it doesn't seem think any of them are worried about the macroeconomic consequences of Bush's drunken spending spree over the last seven years.
Pure opinion ahead: I think it's really scary how we've been printing money like mad to pay for things like the war in Iraq, consequently killing the value of the dollar. The price of oil comes into play as well, and that only appears to be getting worse. In addition, the housing market is showing no real signs of recovery.
Yes, the stimulus side is important, but I doubt either of the above solutions will have a real impact. What's a few hundred dollars when you're about to lose your house? Or if we hit a period of hyperinflation?
I don't know the answer, but a small rebate or a payroll tax reprieve seem like political smokescreen. As you suggested regarding the 2001 tax cuts, it was wrong then and it is wrong now: we need what we can to pay down the debt and solidify the foundation of our economy. If our money's worthless, then a little more of it in our pockets means nil.
This is coming from someone who, not so long ago, had economic views left of just about every Democrat in the country. But different times, different measures. At the very least, we need to bring the taxes back to the pre-Bush levels AND reign in our spending to get our debt under control. Expensive so-called stimulus packages that will likely have minimal impact seem rather foolish at this time.
Am I completely missing the mark here?