The "Bradley Effect" and other Golden State inventions

Posted 44 weeks 6 days ago by Ben

Mickey Kaus offers four theories to explain the conventional-wisdom crushing outcome of the New Hampshire primary. The first is "the Bradley effect." L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley ran for California governor in 1982 against Republican George Deukmejian. Bradley was black and Deukmejian is white. Bradley consistently led in the polls, but Deukmejian ultimately won. The Bradley effect, then, is a phenomenon in which polls show higher numbers because white voters fib about their intentions of voting for a black candidate. The Bradley effect predates the Wilder effect, but same difference as the kids say.

Notes Kaus: "New Hampshire, of course, is a secret ballot election. Voters might have told pollsters one thing but done another in private." Hmmm. Yes. Human nature being what it is.

But the more interesting theory that Kaus posits (with credit to its originator, Brendan Loy) is the "Congestion Alert effect":

I remember when the Southern California transportation authorities installed a state-of-the-art series of electronic signs alongside the freeways to give motorists instantaneous warnings of traffic delays. The signs don't do that any more. Why? It turned out that when you warned drivers of congestion on Route A, they all took Route B, leading the latter to become congested instead of the former. Similarly, independent voters in N.H. were told by the press that the Democratic race was a done deal -- so they voted in the closer, more exciting Republican race. Which made the Republican race not so close and the undid the deal in the Dem race.