It's just really difficult for me to imagine the incumbent party holding onto power in the face of an unpopular war and a bad economy. Count the fact that 81 percent of voters think the country is on the wrong track as further evidence along those lines.

Given the prevailing mood, it seems obvious that the average voter is going to want to vote for a candidate who can credibly promise that he'll pursue substantially different policies from those of George W. Bush. But McCain has promised to follow Bush on Iraq, promised to follow Bush on taxes, promised to follow Bush on housing issues, and shows no sign whatsoever of even understanding why people are frustrated with Bush. So how's he going to win?

Forty years after the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was killed, we sometimes talk about race in America as if nothing has changed. The truth is that everything has changed -- mostly for the better -- and that if we're ever going to see King's dream fulfilled, first we have to acknowledge that this is not an America he would have recognized.

There remains a significant income gap between whites and blacks in this country, although it shrinks when educational level is factored in. But the gap in wealth, or net worth, is huge, even when you control for education, age, family size and whatever else you want to throw in. Still, African Americans control an estimated $800 billion in purchasing power. If that were translated into gross domestic product, a sovereign "Black America" would be the 15th- or 16th-richest nation on earth.

The African American poor are a smaller segment than they were 40 years ago, but arguably they are further from full participation in society than they were in King's era. It's not that they have no interest in climbing the ladder, it's that too many rungs are missing.

The Bush-Cheney years have been a petri dish of neoconservative policy, quasi-theocratic legal victories, and state-sponsored bigotry that has bred contempt and persecution for gay men, lesbians, and transgenders. The “unity” ticket could be that first important building block to address many of the queer community’s concerns. Clinton, the policy wonk, is comfortable discussing LGBT issues with gay groups and is on a first-name basis with many leading activists. She’s the more practical partner, knowing the structures and systems that could be easily maximized to achieve rights for our community. Obama doesn’t seem as comfortable talking to our groups -- at least not yet -- but brings another impressive asset: The senator talks about our issues to mainstream audiences.