While Obama has clearly caught up to, and perhaps passed, Clinton in the battle for the nomination, they continue to have complementary strengths and weaknesses. To win in November, Obama is going to have do much much better among the white working class--one can assume that he would get Clinton's female voters just as she would get his African American voters. Clinton, on other hand, looks very shaky among white men. There remains a question, too, whether the young voters and independents who have flocked to Obama's banner would vote for her in the fall.

All the quick fixes I had been mulling over were not going to work. Debt consolidation was too expensive. Defaulting and bankruptcy would torpedo my credit rating and set me back for years. I couldn't ask the credit card companies to lower my APR until I got my payments under control and raised my credit score, which would take two months of no-s**t efforts. I was going to have to stare down my debt the old-fashioned way: I was going to have to pay it.

With Mr. Obama closing in on her steadily, it is essential for Mrs. Clinton to defeat him decisively on Super Tuesday. Anything less than a crushing victory will allow the race to continue throughout February and well into March, and that will almost certainly prove fatal. After Super Tuesday, the race will shift back towards the sort of state-by-state retail politics that characterised the early primaries, allowing Mr. Obama to play to his ability to fire up the crowds at huge rallies that resemble rock-concerts more than conventional politics. The buzz that surrounds him will grow, neutralising Mrs. Clinton's greatest advantage, which is the fact that people feel they know a lot more about her.

If John McCain secures the Republican presidential nomination, his victory would signal a revolution in American politics—a divorce, after a 28-year marriage, between the Republican and conservative establishments.

McCain would be the first Republican nominee since Gerald Ford in 1976 to win despite opposition from organized conservatism, and also the first whose base in Republican primaries rested on the party’s center and its dwindling left. McCain is winning despite conservatives, not because of them.