Romney blurts out the truth. For a change. But it remains true that he was never as enthusiastic/delusional a supporter of the surge as McCain. McCain's biggest liability in the fall is his total embrace of a permanent Iraq occupation. Romney, as usual, gave himself some lee-way.

This is the sort of decision that has the potential to tear the party apart.

If this pushes her over the edge, the Obama camp, and their supporters, really will feel that she stole her victory. They didn't contest those states because they weren't going to count, not because they were so committed to the DNC's procedural arguments that they were willing to sacrifice dozens of delegates to support it. It's as hard as hardball gets, and the end could be unimaginably acrimonious. Imagine if African-American voters feel the rules were changed to prevent Obama's victory, if young voters feel the delegate counts were shifted to block their candidate.

Over the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.

My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.

Mr Bush's last, best hope of salvaging something from the wreck of his reputation lies in a deal in the Middle East, however improbable, and in bequeathing to his successor an Iraq that is at least manageable. He will try to strike a bipartisan tone. Given that 12 months from now he will be gone, he may get a generous response, even from Democrats.

What should we watch for?

Above all, the decibel level. President Bush will enter the chamber to traditional thunderous applause – cheers for the office, not the man. During the speech, Republicans will give standing ovations. Normally Democrats would be rooted to their seats, so any show of enthusiasm by them would be a bonus. But within 24 hours the whole thing will be forgotten, as results from Tuesday's Republican primary in Florida start coming in.